Featured analysis

The United States Needs Europe And Vice Versa (Pt. 2)

Econographics May 29, 2025

After partial relief, what’s next for Syria sanctions?

By Alex Zerden

Syria remains a high-risk jurisdiction due to years of conflict, endemic corruption, state institution collapse, narcotrafficking of captagon, insufficient anti-money laundering efforts, and inadequate financing of terrorism controls.
Economic Sanctions Economy & Business
The United States Needs Europe And Vice Versa (Pt. 2)

Econographics May 27, 2025

Dispatch from London: Engaging Trump without alienating the rest

By Josh Lipsky, Charles Lichfield

The GeoEconomics team traveled across the pond for a series of meetings and events to determine if the recent US-UK trade deal could be a template for other countries seeking accords with the United States.
Economy & Business International Markets
The United States Needs Europe And Vice Versa (Pt. 2)

Sinographs Jun 2, 2025

Hong Kong highlights China’s policy of decoupling from US financial markets

By Jeremy Mark

The political benefits of an international financial center with Chinese characteristics will outweigh the pain that decoupling inflicts on China’s private sector.
China Economy & Business

COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

Econographics deep dives

Special sections that go inside the Chinese economy, the evolution of sanctions, and the future of money.

 

Sinographs

In-depth analysis of economic and financial trends in the Chinese economy.

Fintech frontlines

Research and analysis on the intersection of technology and policy developments in finance.

Global sanctions dashboard

Monthly analysis of global sanctions regimes—highlighting new listings, delistings, and the motivations behind these changes.

Latest analysis

EconoGraphics

Jun 3, 2019

US Cuba policy: EU and Canadian firms to suffer?

By BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY SHIQING HUA, FRANCIS AUBEE, AND NICK BROWN

On April 17 2019, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced an important change in the United States’ policy toward Cuba: Title III of the Cuban Liberty and Democracy Solidarity Act of 1996 (LIBERTAD Act) would no longer be suspended. As a result of this decision, US claimants can now seek compensation for property confiscated by the Castro government. The move has important implications for US and foreign companies doing business in Cuba. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the history and purpose of the LIBERTAD Act, evaluates the policy’s potential impact on US allies’ economic interests in Cuba, and highlights its implications for the pressure campaign against the Maduro regime in Venezuela.

Cuba Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Apr 29, 2019

Central Bank Independence Under Scrutiny

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Francis Aubee

On April 26, following stronger than expected US economic growth numbers, the White House’s National Economic Council director, Larry Kudlow, urged the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

EconoGraphics

Feb 6, 2019

A Breakdown of the Sanctions Deal between the United States and Oleg Deripaska

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Zachary Coles

On January 16, a US Senate resolution to maintain US sanctions on the Russian aluminum giant RUSAL and its holding company EN+ failed to garner the necessary 60 votes to pass. As a result, the Trump administration lifted its economic sanctions on RUSAL and EN+ on January 27.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

Blogs

Dec 21, 2018

Economic Outlook for 2019

By Global Business & Economics Program

December 2018 is set to become the worst year-end finish for US markets since 1931. A yield curve inversion combined with the fourth annual rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing geo-political uncertainty, triggered widespread angst among US investors about an economic slowdown and the increasing probability of a recession. This edition of the EconoGraphic assesses key economic indicators to make a case that while a slowing of the US economy seems certain, a recession in the next two years remains unlikely.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Dec 5, 2018

Trade Disrupted: US and China Need More Than a Truce

By Ole Moehr

At this year’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the trade dispute between China and the United States took center stage. Chinese President Xi and his US counterpart President Donald Trump agreed to avoid further escalations of the ongoing bilateral trade war for the next 90 days. The temporary deal does not assuage the escalatory measures already taken, leaving the existing tariffs in place. This edition of the EconoGraphic explores how the brewing trade conflict is impacting manufacturing supply chains, soybean cargo routes, and trade flows of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) among the United States, China, and the rest of the world.

China Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Oct 30, 2018

SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran

By Ole Moehr

With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Oct 9, 2018

JCPOA in Peril – EU SPV to the Rescue?

By Ole Moehr

The European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, recently announced that the EU will set-up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) “to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran.” In response, our visiting senior fellow, Samantha Sultoon, argued that this SPV will not provide a reliable path around US sanctions, and may undermine the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions in the long-run. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains how the SPV would work in practice and outlines why this mechanism is unlikely to offer Iran enough economic upside to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) alive.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Sep 17, 2018

Turkish Outbreak: Risk of Emerging Market Contagion?

By Christina Gay and Ole Moehr

With the strengthening of the US dollar in the wake of continued interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve and brewing pressures in a number of emerging market (EM), portfolio flows into EM countries slowed from $13.7 billion in July to just $2.2 billion in August. Companies and banks in both Argentina and Turkey borrowed heavily in dollar denominated debt while interest rates were low and are now faced with mounting debt burdens, which, if not backed by sufficient reserves puts them at risk for default if investors lose confidence. The Turkish lira has fallen over 40 percent in 2018. Its sharp decline in August raised concern of contagion to other markets, as the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, and the Indian rupee have also come under pressure. This edition of the Econographic compares situation in Turkey with the Asian financial crisis in 1997, analyzes root causes of the current pressures in Turkey, and assesses the broader implications for EM economies.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Aug 8, 2018

JEEPA – Japan-EU Free Trade Agreement Leaves the US Out in the Cold

By Cecilia Pan and Ole Moehr

While President Trump is pursuing a protectionist trade agenda – halting negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and threatening trade wars against adversaries and allies – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been doing just the opposite. As part of Abenomics’ third arrow, the Prime Minister is forging global partnerships between Japan and other leading economies to foster economic growth. Case in point, the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA) signed on July 17, 2018. This edition of the EconoGraphic will review this ambitious bilateral free trade agreement, assess its impact on the US economy, and explore the consequences of the United States’ retreat from its role as the global leader for free trade.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Jul 19, 2018

US Iran Sanctions Could SpOIL the Global Economy

By Ole Moehr

The Trump Administration’s “maximum pressure” approach against Iran to reduce Iranian crude oil exports to zero as soon as possible is expected to rattle markets and could undermine the credibility and effectiveness of US sanctions. This edition of the EconoGraphic outlines how re-imposed US sanctions against Iran will affect the global oil market, the price of oil, US consumers, and the American economy.

China Economic Sanctions
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Content

EconoGraphics

Mar 7, 2017

The United States Needs Europe And Vice Versa (Pt. 2)

By Lu Ding & Ole Moehr

US economic ties with the European Union (27) generate the largest global bilateral trade flows, worth an estimated $2.4 billion per day. The massive volume of US-EU (27) bilateral trade promotes prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic.

Economy & Business Europe & Eurasia

EconoGraphics

Feb 22, 2017

The United States Needs Europe and Vice-Versa

By Lu Ding & Ole Moehr

The United States is the world’s largest recipient of global foreign direct investment (FDI). On a current-cost basis, the US FDI stock was more than three times larger than that of the second largest destination country in 2014, the most recent year from which statistics are available. Despite the current fragile global economy and great political uncertainty, foreign investment in the United States remains strong.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Dec 12, 2016

Refer-Ending Renzi’s Government

By Filippos Letsas

On December 4, Italian voters rejected former Prime Minister Renzi’s constitutional reform referendum. The result of the referendum renewed concerns about the economic recovery in Italy, stability of the Euro, broader European economic integration, and rising populism across Europe. In the week following the referendum, global markets have focused their attention on the ailing Italian banking sector.

Economy & Business Europe & Eurasia

EconoGraphics

Nov 29, 2016

The United States Needs China and Vice-Versa

By Filippos Letsas

Over the last decade, China’s large holdings of US debt have helped the Bank of China keep the value of the renminbi artificially low. This strengthened China’s competitive position in the global markets, allowing for cheaper Chinese exports and contributed significantly to China’s large trade surplus, which now accounts for about half of the total US trade deficit.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Oct 25, 2016

CETA: Why “Comprehensive” Matters

By Filippos Letsas

On October 14th, the regional parliament of Wallonia, a French-speaking region of 3.6 million people in Belgium, voted to block the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), a proposed trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and Canada, which has been negotiated for over 7 years.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Oct 7, 2016

Europe′s Fiscal Burden in Focus

By Filippos Letsas

The European Union’s (EU) Stability and Growth Pact requires Eurozone countries to annually lay out their fiscal plans for the following three years. The European Commission (EC) then compares the member states’ reports with its own projections and those produced by independent bodies, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to evaluate whether the member states are on track to reach their Medium-Term Budgetary Objectives (MTOs).

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Sep 30, 2016

Myanmar: Post-Sanctions Landscape

By Filippos Letsas

On the occasion of Myanmar’s State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi’s recent visit to the United States (U.S.), President Obama announced that executive sanctions on Myanmar would soon be lifted. This will grant Myanmar greater access to the U.S. market and encourage U.S. companies to invest in the country. Trade between the two countries remains at relatively low levels (i.e. $225 million in 2015), with U.S. investment to Myanmar accounting for only 0.2% of the country’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Sep 13, 2016

TTIP = So (Ger)Many Benefits

By Filippos Letsas

As the most export-driven major economy in the European Union (EU), Germany stands to benefit greatly from a robust Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Jul 12, 2016

Taking Stock of European Banks: Improvements Amid Challenges

By Nathaniel Rome

Since the British referendum, Europe’s banking sector has come under renewed scrutiny from financial markets as well as European Union officials and finance ministers. A primary focus is on Italy - which has accumulated $400 billion in gross bad loans - and the EU-Italy talks about how to recapitalize the weak Italian banks.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Jun 29, 2016

Econographics – TTIP

By Nathaniel Rome

The United Kingdom’s (UK) vote last week to leave the European Union (EU) has raised questions about the future of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). TTIP is a trade agreement currently being negotiated by the United States (US) and the EU that will eliminate tariffs, reduce red tape, and set a new standard for international trade agreements. Following the Brexit vote, US Trade Representative Michael Froman and European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström released statements reaffirming their commitment to TTIP.

Economy & Business European Union
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