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EconoGraphics

Jun 3, 2019

US Cuba policy: EU and Canadian firms to suffer?

By BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY SHIQING HUA, FRANCIS AUBEE, AND NICK BROWN

On April 17 2019, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced an important change in the United States’ policy toward Cuba: Title III of the Cuban Liberty and Democracy Solidarity Act of 1996 (LIBERTAD Act) would no longer be suspended. As a result of this decision, US claimants can now seek compensation for property confiscated by the Castro government. The move has important implications for US and foreign companies doing business in Cuba. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the history and purpose of the LIBERTAD Act, evaluates the policy’s potential impact on US allies’ economic interests in Cuba, and highlights its implications for the pressure campaign against the Maduro regime in Venezuela.

Cuba Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Apr 29, 2019

Central Bank Independence Under Scrutiny

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Francis Aubee

On April 26, following stronger than expected US economic growth numbers, the White House’s National Economic Council director, Larry Kudlow, urged the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

EconoGraphics

Feb 6, 2019

A Breakdown of the Sanctions Deal between the United States and Oleg Deripaska

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Zachary Coles

On January 16, a US Senate resolution to maintain US sanctions on the Russian aluminum giant RUSAL and its holding company EN+ failed to garner the necessary 60 votes to pass. As a result, the Trump administration lifted its economic sanctions on RUSAL and EN+ on January 27.

Economy & Business Financial Sanctions and Economic Coercion

EconoGraphics

Dec 21, 2018

Economic Outlook for 2019

By Global Business & Economics Program

December 2018 is set to become the worst year-end finish for US markets since 1931. A yield curve inversion combined with the fourth annual rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing geo-political uncertainty, triggered widespread angst among US investors about an economic slowdown and the increasing probability of a recession. This edition of the EconoGraphic assesses key economic indicators to make a case that while a slowing of the US economy seems certain, a recession in the next two years remains unlikely.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Dec 5, 2018

Trade Disrupted: US and China Need More Than a Truce

By Ole Moehr

At this year’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the trade dispute between China and the United States took center stage. Chinese President Xi and his US counterpart President Donald Trump agreed to avoid further escalations of the ongoing bilateral trade war for the next 90 days. The temporary deal does not assuage the escalatory measures already taken, leaving the existing tariffs in place. This edition of the EconoGraphic explores how the brewing trade conflict is impacting manufacturing supply chains, soybean cargo routes, and trade flows of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) among the United States, China, and the rest of the world.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Oct 30, 2018

SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran

By Ole Moehr

With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.

Economy & Business Financial Sanctions and Economic Coercion

EconoGraphics

Oct 9, 2018

JCPOA in Peril – EU SPV to the Rescue?

By Ole Moehr

The European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, recently announced that the EU will set-up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) “to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran.” In response, our visiting senior fellow, Samantha Sultoon, argued that this SPV will not provide a reliable path around US sanctions, and may undermine the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions in the long-run. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains how the SPV would work in practice and outlines why this mechanism is unlikely to offer Iran enough economic upside to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) alive.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Sep 17, 2018

Turkish Outbreak: Risk of Emerging Market Contagion?

By Christina Gay and Ole Moehr

With the strengthening of the US dollar in the wake of continued interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve and brewing pressures in a number of emerging market (EM), portfolio flows into EM countries slowed from $13.7 billion in July to just $2.2 billion in August. Companies and banks in both Argentina and Turkey borrowed heavily in dollar denominated debt while interest rates were low and are now faced with mounting debt burdens, which, if not backed by sufficient reserves puts them at risk for default if investors lose confidence. The Turkish lira has fallen over 40 percent in 2018. Its sharp decline in August raised concern of contagion to other markets, as the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, and the Indian rupee have also come under pressure. This edition of the Econographic compares situation in Turkey with the Asian financial crisis in 1997, analyzes root causes of the current pressures in Turkey, and assesses the broader implications for EM economies.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Aug 8, 2018

JEEPA – Japan-EU Free Trade Agreement Leaves the US Out in the Cold

By Cecilia Pan and Ole Moehr

While President Trump is pursuing a protectionist trade agenda – halting negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and threatening trade wars against adversaries and allies – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been doing just the opposite. As part of Abenomics’ third arrow, the Prime Minister is forging global partnerships between Japan and other leading economies to foster economic growth. Case in point, the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA) signed on July 17, 2018. This edition of the EconoGraphic will review this ambitious bilateral free trade agreement, assess its impact on the US economy, and explore the consequences of the United States’ retreat from its role as the global leader for free trade.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Jul 19, 2018

US Iran Sanctions Could SpOIL the Global Economy

By Ole Moehr

The Trump Administration’s “maximum pressure” approach against Iran to reduce Iranian crude oil exports to zero as soon as possible is expected to rattle markets and could undermine the credibility and effectiveness of US sanctions. This edition of the EconoGraphic outlines how re-imposed US sanctions against Iran will affect the global oil market, the price of oil, US consumers, and the American economy.

China Economy & Business

Content

Econographics

Sep 22, 2026

To achieve its next economic leap, Vietnam needs to move beyond the factory floor

By Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou

Vietnam’s export-driven growth has been remarkable. But with domestic firms capturing relatively little of the value, Hanoi now needs to turn foreign investment into broader gains at home.

Economy & Business South Asia

Econographics

Sep 21, 2026

The four issues our experts are watching ahead of this week’s Trump-Xi summit

By Beth Baltzan, Jeremy Mark, Stephen P. Vaughn, Jessie Yin

From AI governance to trade and economic headwinds in Beijing, our experts break down the key questions shaping the summit—and what could come next.

China Economy & Business

Econographics

Sep 17, 2026

Ten years into Trump’s trade experiment, the US continues to defy expectations

By Stephen P. Vaughn

A decade of tariffs and trade wars has yet to deliver the economic collapse many critics predicted. Instead, the data tell a more complicated story.

Economy & Business Macroeconomics

Econographics

Sep 15, 2026

The Philippines needs to turn fast growth into productive growth

By Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou

The Southeast Asian nation has proved it can grow. Now, amid shifting supply chains and rising geopolitical tensions, it must prove it can grow more productively.

Economy & Business Indo-Pacific

Econographics

Sep 14, 2026

Friends with few trade benefits

By Madeline Chalecki

Free trade agreements were supposed to protect US trading partners. But the Trump administration’s tariffs are putting that promise to the test.

Economy & Business Trade and tariffs

Econographics

Sep 10, 2026

Nearly two decades after the global financial crisis, a new regulatory era is dawning

By Matthew L. Ekberg

Nearly two decades after the 2008 crash, the rules governing the world’s banks are being rewritten. But as the US, UK, and EU push to modernize financial regulation, they face a difficult question: Can they boost growth without undermining financial stability?

Economy & Business Europe & Eurasia

Econographics

Sep 9, 2026

The five issues to watch at next month’s IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings

By Hung Tran

From soaring debt to trade fragmentation and AI disruption, the global economy faces no shortage of challenges. Here are the five issues to watch at next month’s fall meetings.

Economy & Business Inclusive Growth

Econographics

Sep 8, 2026

The IMF’s boost to China’s currency is costing the world, ten years later

By Jeremy Mark

The renminbi was supposed to become a global currency. Instead, China’s tight controls have helped lay the groundwork for a more fragmented monetary system.

China Economy & Business

Econographics

Aug 28, 2026

The G20 needs more carrots to rebalance away from China

By Barbara C. Matthews

Tariffs alone won’t fix global imbalances. The G20 should use economic “carrots” to de-risk from China without destabilizing it.

China Economy & Business

Econographics

Aug 25, 2026

Maritime trade routes are under threat—and markets still underprice the risks

By Alex Mills

Conflict, climate change, and geopolitical tensions are putting unprecedented pressure on the world's most important waterways. The economic costs are set to ripple far beyond the shipping industry.

Central America Economy & Business