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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.


editor’s picks

Latest analysis


UkraineAlert

Feb 15, 2016

Who Should Pay for the Restoration of the Donbas?

By
Anders Åslund

It appears a real possibility that the Donbas will be reunified with the rest of Ukraine this year: its occupation simply costs the Kremlin too much. Its Novorossiya project has failed, and the Donbas on its own has no appeal to the Russian people. And Russia cannot get rid of the current suffocating financial sanctions […]


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UkraineAlert

Feb 10, 2016

Where is Ukraine’s Government Headed Now? Four Possible Scenarios

By
Tim Ash

Ukraine’s ongoing political crisis offers observers an opportunity to analyze the current state of affairs and determine likely scenarios for the country’s political future in the near term. First, the recent resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius from the position of Minister of Economic Development and Trade did not appear to be coordinated with either the reform […]


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UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Ukraine’s Got a Real Army Now. But Is It Preparing to Fight the Last Battle?

By
Ruben Gzirian

The prolonged stalemate of Minsk II has provided the Ukrainian military ample opportunity to address a series of longstanding challenges stretching back to the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych. While it is clear that the Ukrainian military has improved since its disastrous defeat at Debaltseve in February 2015, evaluating the real effect of ongoing reforms is […]


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UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Dutch Likely to Hand Putin a Major Symbolic Victory in Referendum on EU-Ukraine Association Agreement

By
Andreas Umland

There is something odd about the upcoming Dutch plebiscite on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. On April 6, the Netherlands will hold a national referendum on a treaty between Brussels and Kyiv that was signed in 2014 and ratified in 2015. Yet, the European Union and the European Community have, during the last sixty years, concluded […]


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UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Actually, No. Russia and Ukraine Are Not Equally Delinquent When It Comes to Fulfilling Minsk

By
Paul Niland

One of the most startling examples of the adage “there are two sides to every story” is the difference in perceptions over the implementation of the Minsk Agreements between Ukraine and Russia. Minsk, if handled in good faith, could be the roadmap to deescalate the war in Ukraine and bring peace to the region. In […]


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UkraineAlert

Feb 8, 2016

What’s Behind the Resignation of Minister Abromavicius?

By
Basil A. Kalymon and Oleh Havrylyshyn

The resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius from the position of Minister of Economic Development and Trade is another nail in the coffin for the hopes for serious reform in Ukraine. In resigning, he follows in the footsteps of his predecessor Pavlo Sheremeta, who was also unwilling to serve in a government that was more interested in […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 5, 2016

Putin Corners Himself in Ukraine. We Would Be Crazy to Placate Him Now

By
Diane Francis

The recent backroom bilateral talks between the United States and Russia about Ukraine have caused anxiety in the region, raised hopes that sanctions could be lifted, and elevated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s status to super power level. All are counterproductive. Since the bilateral talks and optimistic statements by US Secretary of State John Kerry about […]


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UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2016

Why Do Ukraine’s Reform Ministers Keep Quitting?

By
Anders Åslund

On February 3, Ukraine’s Minister of Economic Development and Trade Aivaras Abromavicius announced his resignation at a press briefing with a big bang that may unleash a political crisis and shake the country’s fragile finances. Abromavicius, a 40-year-old investment banker of Lithuanian origin who has lived in Kyiv for many years as a fund manager, […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2016

Only Presidential Leadership Can Avert Ukraine’s Perfect Storm

By
Adrian Karatnycky

The February 3 resignation of Ukraine’s Economy Minister Aivaras Abromavicius is a signal that the country’s efforts to dramatically reduce corruption and rent-seeking are meeting with serious resistance. The resignation also exposes how Ukraine’s political system works. Just as in established democracies, technocrats and experts have to make common cause with politicians and ideologues. And […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2016

Russian Propaganda in Ukraine: Fighting Phantoms

By
Roman Shutov

For Ukrainians, the war in eastern Ukraine has become an everyday reality. Only two years ago, though, no one in the country believed war was possible—and certainly no one expected that propaganda would be one of its main weapons. Since Ukraine’s independence in 1991, little attention was paid to building a system that would ensure […]


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Ukraine

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The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.

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UkraineAlert

Mar 7, 2016

Russia Declares War on Crimean Tatars

By Halya Coynash

Two years after invading and annexing Crimea, Russia appears ready to outlaw the Crimean Tatar Mejlis, the representative body of the largest indigenous people of the peninsula. The behavior which Russia deems “extremist” is essentially the Mejlis’ implacable, but always peaceful, opposition to Russia’s occupation. It is unclear whether Western countries will respond with more […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 7, 2016

Mother of Hunger-Striking Pilot Calls for Justice

By Melinda Haring

Editor’s Note: Ukrainian fighter pilot Nadiya Savchenko started a “dry” hunger strike on March 3 after Russian prosecutors requested a 23-year sentence for Savchenko. In 2014, Savchenko was captured by the pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas, transferred to Russia, where she was accused of involvement in the death of two Russian journalists. Savchenko’s mother Mariya […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 4, 2016

“You Have Not Defeated Me and You Never Will!” Ukrainian Fighter Pilot Nadiya Savchenko Tells Russian Court

By Alexei Sobchenko

Even for Russia, where everyday life can best be described as Kafkaesque, the case of Nadiya Savchenko is outrageous. In 2014, during the war in Ukraine’s Donbas, Savchenko, a Ukrainian military officer captured by the pro-Russian separatists in combat, was transferred to Russia, where she was accused of involvement in the death of two Russian […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 2, 2016

Early Elections in Ukraine Are Scarier Than You Think

By Adrian Karatnycky

Should Ukraine hold new elections? Despite the failure of Ukraine’s parliament to remove the government of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk from office on February 16, the defection of two parties from the governing coalition gives President Petro Poroshenko the ability to declare the absence of a majority coalition and force new elections. Western donors, including […]

European Union International Organizations

UkraineAlert

Mar 2, 2016

Two Cheers for Cold War!

By Alexander J. Motyl

Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev’s recent suggestion that Russia and the West are embroiled in cold war provoked hasty denials by Western policymakers and commentators. In fact, Medvedev was right: cold war between Russia and the West does exist. But the West’s denials were unnecessary, because cold war is the best possible option for its […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 2, 2016

Women of the Euromaidan: Where Were They Then and Where Are They Now

By Josh Cohen

As Kateryna Kruk walked among her fellow protesters in Kyiv’s central square while checking her phone during the early days of the Euromaidan in December 2013, she noticed an opportunity: Ukrainians shared news of the revolution almost entirely in Ukrainian or Russian. Inspired by the use of social media during the Arab Spring, Kruk started […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 29, 2016

The Real Fight for Ukraine’s Future

By Emmet Tuohy

As rain clouds sweep in from the west on a winter morning, the Ukrainian Black Sea town of Mykolayiv does not present the most welcoming picture. Up to three feet of standing water obscure the city’s main intersections, where stray dogs and homeless people rush to traverse four lanes of traffic before the next taxi […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 29, 2016

Early Elections in Ukraine Aren’t So Scary. Here’s Why

By Anders Åslund

The dominant view in Washington is that Ukraine must avoid early parliamentary elections. Many Ukrainians, however, see them as inevitable and ultimately they decide. Therefore, we need to discuss not if early parliamentary elections should be held, but instead how and when. Both the United States and the European Union reckon that Ukraine needs political […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 26, 2016

Ukraine’s Booming Tech Sector Gets International Attention Despite War

By Diane Francis

A plain Soviet-era office block squats on a residential street in the beautiful historic city of Lviv, Ukraine. The lobby is dimly lit and there is no seating, only a stern guard who points to the elevator to access local software engineering firm N-iX. The doors part and the offices are an orange and white […]

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UkraineAlert

Feb 24, 2016

Remembering the Day Russia Invaded Ukraine

By John E. Herbst and Alina Polyakova

Two years ago on February 27, Russia invaded Ukraine. On the heels of the Euromaidan Revolution and the vicious sniper attacks that killed 103 Ukrainians, Russian President Vladimir Putin saw an opportunity and ordered the military takeover of Crimea. The operation began when Russian military personnel, disguised as little green men in unmarked uniforms, and […]

Ukraine