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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.


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Latest analysis


UkraineAlert

Dec 4, 2014

Amid East Europe’s Tussle, Moldova Election Shows Need to Speed Reform

By
James Rupert

US, EU Should Re-Focus Now on What May Be a Last, Best Chance for Critical Changes, Analysts Say Moldova’s pro-Europe parties have won a troubled election victory, taking barely enough parliament seats to renew their coalition and pursue the integration of Moldova with the European Union. That may hold open a window of opportunity—for perhaps […]


Eastern Europe


Elections


UkraineAlert

Nov 26, 2014

On Ukraine, the Economists Declare an Emergency

By
James Rupert

Ukraine’s Friends Plan a Donor Conference in February; Is That Soon Enough? On Ukraine, the economists are declaring an emergency. Ukraine is bleeding cash in its war against Russian and Russian-proxy forces in the Donbas region. With its industrial heartland shattered by the war, the country’s economy is shriveling. And the warnings from economists are […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Nov 21, 2014

Before Ukraine Can Be Reformed, It Must Be Defended

By
Paul Goble

When Hitler Invaded Poland, No One Demanded Polish Reforms Before Offering Help. Why Is It the Reverse for Ukraine? “September 3, 1939 – British and French commentators and officials said today that it could no longer be denied that Hitler was invading Poland and that the Nazi forces represented the most serious threat to the […]


Eastern Europe


Russia


UkraineAlert

Nov 18, 2014

Ukraine’s New Government: The Names Emerge

By
New Atlanticist

We can expect Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, to meet this week to vote on the country’s new government. The political parties of President Petro Poroshenko, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and their allies are close to completing negotiations and announcing their choices for the new Cabinet of Ministers. Critically, a delegation is in Kyiv from […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Nov 18, 2014

Russians’ Once-Secretive Commander in Ukraine is On the Air

By
Irena Chalupa

Colonel Igor Girkin Presses Kremlin to Expand Its War Through Southern and Eastern Ukraine “The Shooter” is back. Colonel Igor Girkin, the career Russian intelligence officer who disappeared three months ago from his leading role in the Russian-sponsored war against Ukraine, has burst anew into Russia’s news headlines. He has given a spate of interviews […]


Eastern Europe


Russia


UkraineAlert

Nov 12, 2014

Putin’s Project Sparta

By
Adrian Karatnycky

As the US Congress Reconvenes, It and Europe Must Respond to the Kremlin’s Coming Offensive in Ukraine Russia has moved a massive wave of tanks, armored personnel carriers, and artillery into Ukraine’s Donbas region in recent days, accompanied by new uniformed troops without insignia, to bolster the armed forces of the Russian-sponsored Donetsk and Lugansk […]


Eastern Europe


Russia


UkraineAlert

Nov 10, 2014

How Russia Sells Itself to the Long-Demoralized People of Donbas

By
Irena Chalupa

In Stakhanov, a Cossack Rebel and Local Radio Mix Nostalgias for Russia’s Greatness and Soviet Goodness While analysts of Russia’s assault on Ukraine debate the veiled question of President Vladimir Putin’s motives, little is hidden about how the Kremlin and its proxy forces are selling themselves to the long-demoralized people of southeastern Ukraine. As Moscow […]


Eastern Europe


Russia


UkraineAlert

Nov 7, 2014

For Putin, Ukraine’s Elections Backfired. So the War Is On Again.

By
James Rupert

Analysts: Moscow Fights Now with Mercenaries and Local Trainees, But in 20 Weeks May Again Send Its Own Troops The Russian-Ukrainian conflict in southeastern Ukraine is sliding back quickly into all-out war. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said this morning that its forces have killed 200 separatist fighters and destroyed four tanks, plus artillery in the past […]


Eastern Europe


Russia


UkraineAlert

Nov 6, 2014

Ukraine’s Need for Fast Reform Means Government Has No Time for Infighting

By
Sabine Freizer

Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk Must Cut Short Their Recent Signs of Rivalry As Ukraine’s new leading political parties renew their talks today, they can waste no time in forming the government that now must grapple with a financial emergency, economic crisis, and war in the east. They must avoid acrimony or drawn-out negotiations, yet some signs […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Nov 3, 2014

Ukraine’s New Government: Here’s What to Expect

By
New Atlanticist

Amid Horse-Trading by Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk, a New Parliament Speaker Is Likely The Atlantic Council’s Kyiv-based senior fellow, Brian Mefford, writes on the likely makeup of Ukraine’s post-election government. His key observations are below, and you can read his detailed analysis on his own blog.


Elections


Politics & Diplomacy

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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UkraineAlert

Apr 2, 2015

The IMF’s Very Tough Love for Ukraine

By Yuriy Gorodnichenko

As Kyiv Slashes Spending, the Economy’s Real Shrinkage This Year May Be 10, Not 6, Percent The International Monetary Fund last month threw what looks like a much-improved financial lifeline to Ukraine—and indeed, the new loan program is welcome help for a desperate need. But a check on the math of one prominent IMF realist […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 31, 2015

In Ukraine, the Real Fight is for Europe

By Stephen Blank

Putin’s War is Not Over Donbas, but a New Russian Empire According to Vladimir Putin, Crimea and Ukraine are where the spiritual sources of Russia’s nationhood lie. And he “always saw the Russians and Ukrainians as a single people. I still think this way now.” People observing the crisis triggered by Putin’s aggression against Ukraine […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 31, 2015

Russia Plans Spring Offensive in Ukraine, Warns Ex-NATO Chief Wesley Clark

By Ashish Kumar Sen

Russian-backed separatists are planning a fresh offensive in eastern Ukraine that could come within a matter of months, retired Gen. Wesley Clark, a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, warned March 30. “What is happening now is preparations for a renewed offensive from the east,” and this could take place following Orthodox Easter, on April 12, […]

NATO Russia

UkraineAlert

Mar 26, 2015

Less-Stringent Minsk II Terms Paved the Way for Renewed Sanctions

By John E. Herbst

On March 19, delegates at the European Union Summit in Brussels agreed to extend tough sanctions against Moscow—until year’s end if necessary—to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to implement the Minsk II ceasefire. Under terms of that deal, signed on February 12, EU sanctions won’t be lifted until Ukraine takes back full control of its […]

European Union Germany

UkraineAlert

Mar 26, 2015

Putin’s War Has Consolidated Ukraine

By Alexander Motyl

Viewed historically, the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war is the product of four deeper causes and one trigger. First, the Soviet empire’s collapse in 1991 propelled its successor state, Russia, to seek reimperialization for structural and ideological reasons. Second, the emergence of a “fascistoid” (or almost fully fascist) regime made imperial revival a central feature of Vladimir […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 26, 2015

Ukraine’s Powerful Billionaire Governor Quits After Clash With Kyiv

By New Atlanticist

Dnipropetrovsk’s Kolomoyskyi: Patriotic, Corrupt, Threatening—Or All Three? Ukrainian billionaire politician Ihor Kolomoyskyi resigned today as governor of Ukraine’s strategically critical Dnipropetrovsk province after clashing with the central government and parliament over control of two state-owned oil-sector companies. In that clash, Kolomoyskyi last week sent troops of an armed militia he controls to occupy the Kyiv […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 18, 2015

EU Will Kick the Can Down the Road on Russia Sanctions

By Ashish Kumar Sen

Europeans do not want to undermine Minsk II, says analyst European Union leaders meeting in Brussels on March 19 are unlikely to either ramp up or lift sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine, says Edward W. Walker, a professor of political science at the University of California at Berkeley. “It’s very likely that […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 18, 2015

Sanctions Are Still the Answer

By John E. Herbst

Last week, UkraineAlert linked to an interesting piece by Clifford Gaddy criticizing the West’s sanctions on Russia for its aggression in Ukraine. His point is this: Putin believes that Russia is “under assault” by the West and cannot allow Ukraine “to be brought fully into the sphere of influence of its enemy.” Therefore, the West […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 12, 2015

Did Kharkiv Just Become Russia’s Next Target in Ukraine War?

By New Atlanticist

A Criminal Case Could Turn the City’s Political Strongman Back into a Kremlin Ally  In Russia’s campaign to re-assert control over Ukraine, a logical target for its “hybrid war” is Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city and a center of its Russian-speaking population. And indeed, Russia has been working steadily to destabilize Kharkiv (just 25 miles from […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 11, 2015

Ukraine’s Shrinking Hryvnia: How Alarming Is It?

By Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Kyiv Has Begun the Hard Steps of Reform; IMF and Allies Must Now Deliver Quickly The dramatic plunge last month in the value of the hryvnia, Ukraine’s currency, sparked speculation about an immediate, national economic collapse. Despite the drama—the hryvnia lost more than half of its value against the dollar in February, hitting a record […]

Ukraine