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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.


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Latest analysis


UkraineAlert

Jan 12, 2016

2016 Will Be a Make It or Break It Year for Ukraine

By
Alina Polyakova

Two years ago, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians braved the freezing temperatures on Kyiv’s Maidan to protest. Since then, Ukraine has gone through almost too many crises to count: upheaval with the ousting of former President Viktor Yanukovych; Russian occupation of Crimea; a war with Russian forces in the Donbas that continues to simmer; and […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Jan 6, 2016

How Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Sabotaged the Reform Process

By
Halya Coynash

Viktor Shokin, Ukraine’s prosecutor general, was upbeat in his New Year’s message to colleagues. While “2015 was a difficult and responsible year for us all,” he wrote, we “carried out unprecedented reform and overhaul of the prosecutor’s system, bringing it closer to European standards.” Almost twenty years after Ukraine promised to reform its prosecutor’s office […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Jan 5, 2016

Ten Reasons Why I’m Optimistic About Ukraine’s Economy in 2016

By
Anders Åslund

The outlook for the Ukrainian economy in 2016 is positive. Many important reforms were carried out in 2015. The necessary exchange rate adjustment has occurred and most required bank closures have taken place. The parliament has adopted tax changes and a decent budget for 2016. The debt restructuring deal has postponed foreign debt service. The […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Jan 5, 2016

Putin’s Next Potential Target: The Baltic States

By
Stephen Blank

Although Russia’s economy is reeling and its military forces are increasingly engaged in Syria and Ukraine, NATO commanders, governments, and analysts are concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s adventurism has not run its course. Most anxieties focus on the Baltic states as Russia’s next potential military target. Russia has many advantages in the Baltics. The […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Jan 5, 2016

From Ordinary Business Trip to Russian Jail: Former Ukrainian Political Prisoner Exhorts West to Keep Pressure on Russia

By
Yuriy Yatsenko

Editor’s Note: Yuriy Yatsenko testified before the US Helsinki Commission in Washington on December 11, 2015. His remarks have been shortened. I am a Ukrainian citizen who was illegally arrested and detained by the Russian Federation for over a year for political reasons. Nadiya Savchenko, Oleg Sentsov, and others who are less known have suffered and […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Jan 4, 2016

Putin’s Fragile Popularity

By
Andreas Umland

One of the mantras of today’s Kremlin apologists, as well as of some self-described political realists, is that current Russian President Vladimir Putin is unusually popular among Russians. In the interest of pragmatism, they say, the West should acknowledge this allegedly hard fact and adapt its policies accordingly—i.e., try to rebuild a partnership with Russia’s […]


Russia


UkraineAlert

Jan 4, 2016

What Will 2016 Mean for Ukraine?

By
Aaron Korewa

In 2015, Ukraine proved it wasn’t a pushover. The country united in the face of Russian aggression and Russian President Vladimir Putin learned that if he wanted his Novorossiya project, it was going to cost him more than a few little green men. Notably, the war in Ukraine was completely absent from Putin’s December 2015 […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Jan 4, 2016

New Russian Management of the Donbas Signifies Putin May Be Ready to Negotiate

By
Anders Åslund

On December 26, Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed one of his close, trusted aides, Boris Gryzlov, Russia’s representative in the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which concluded the two Minsk agreements on the Donbas in September 2014 and February 2015. This appointment suggests an important change in Russia’s policy toward Ukraine. Gryzlov is a heavyweight […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Dec 22, 2015

Civil Service Reform May Revolutionize Ukraine

By
Josh Cohen

It took a staggering sixteen months and it wasn’t easy. The old guard resisted it every step of the way. Ukraine’s parliament passed civil service reform, one of the highest priorities of the Euromaidan’s young reformers, on December 10. The Reanimation Package of Reforms (RPR), a civic group, described the development as “a real miracle.” […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Dec 21, 2015

An Alliance Deterred

By
Patrick Stephenson

NATO leaders intended the Alliance’s Trident Juncture military exercises, in part, to send a message to Russia that they would not hesitate to defend allied territory. That intention was commendable. But one wonders how exercises in the western Mediterranean will deter Russian ambitions that lie 3,000 km away in Ukraine and on the borders of […]


NATO


Russia

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UkraineAlert

Oct 16, 2014

Putin’s Balkan Gambit

By Damon Wilson

Buoyed by Successes in Europe’s East, Russia’s Leader Turns His Gaze to Serbia and Its Neighbors Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine aims to deny that nation a European future, partly by closing the door permanently to membership in NATO or the European Union. Putin’s aims, however, are not limited to extending a Russian […]

Russia The Balkans

UkraineAlert

Oct 10, 2014

General Wesley Clark: America’s Global Strategy Begins With Ukraine

By James Rupert

Former NATO Commander Says Every US Strategic Interest Is Tied to Russia-Ukraine Crisis America’s five most broadly dangerous 21st-century challenges are disparate, says former presidential candidate and retired senior general Wesley Clark. They stretch from an aggressive China and frail cyber-security to climatic disruptions, unstable financial systems, and terrorism rooted in the Islamic world. All […]

Eastern Europe NATO

UkraineAlert

Oct 6, 2014

Four More Crimean Tatars Vanish, One Dead Amid Russian Crackdown

By James Rupert

19 Tatars Abducted or Disappeared Since Moscow’s Takeover of Crimea At least nineteen ethnic Tatars have been abducted or have disappeared in Russian-ruled Crimea, four of them in the past ten days, Tatar and human rights activists say. Russian authorities up to the office of President Vladimir Putin have promised to investigate the disappearances, which […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Oct 3, 2014

Ukraine’s New Parliament Will Strengthen Poroshenko, but Independents Will Make It Unpredictable

By New Atlanticist

Analysis: Putin Unlikely to Scrap the Ceasefire Before October 26 Vote While Russia’s President Vladimir Putin still has unmet ambitions in Ukraine, he is likely to avoid launching any new military offensive there before Ukraine’s October 26 parliamentary election, writes Timothy Ash, an economist who directs emerging markets strategy at Standard Bank in London. Putin […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Oct 3, 2014

Can US Support for Ukraine Help Prevent a New Russian Invasion?

By James Rupert

Canadian Analyst Says US Should Signal Moscow To Avoid Any Assault in South Amid the relative lull in the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukrainian military specialists say Russia may soon re-invade Ukraine to seize a critical overland supply route to Crimea. But some analysts and officials in the West are less worried. In the end, says military […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 29, 2014

As Winter Nears in Ukraine, Will Moscow Attempt Another Strategic Invasion?

By James Rupert

Continued Attacks Show Kremlin May Be Preparing Drive Toward Crimea, Analysts Say Distracted US and European policymakers may feel grateful that this month’s truce has slowed the Russia-Ukraine war. The Obama administration is seized with the Syria-Iraq crisis and Congress has gone home to campaign for the November 4 election. Europe faces an internal battle […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 25, 2014

Ukraine’s Parliamentary Election: Poroshenko Leads Big at Campaign’s Start

By James Rupert

Early Voter Surveys Reflect Anti-Russian, Pro-Independence Mood Ukrainians will elect a new parliament in exactly thirty days, completing the electoral portion of the political revolution triggered by last winter’s Maidan movement. As the campaign began in recent weeks, two Ukrainian polling organizations conducted surveys that yielded similar numbers on the early mindset of Ukraine’s electorate. […]

Elections Politics & Diplomacy

UkraineAlert

Sep 25, 2014

A Dangerous October: Ukraine Contests an Election As It Fears a Truce

By John E. Herbst

Kyiv Feels Little Supported by the West, Hopes to Survive an Unequal Ceasefire With Russia KYIVA junction of war and politics dominates public life in Ukraine as autumn settles firmly in Kyiv. An unequal cease-fire this month in southeast Ukraine will let Moscow maintain there a core of the invasion force it sent in last […]

Elections Politics & Diplomacy

UkraineAlert

Sep 23, 2014

Russia Cracks Down in Crimea, Shuts Tatar Community Offices

By James Rupert

Police, Masked Thugs Bar Tatar, Other Ethnic Leaders From Attending UN Conference Today Russian authorities in Crimea have moved since last week to silence and isolate the peninsula’s main ethnic Tatar community and political organization, the Mejlis. Russia’s government has shut down the group’s headquarters in Crimea and tried to prevent Tatar representatives from attending […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 22, 2014

Russians Protest Putin’s War on Ukraine: What Does It Mean for Kyiv?

By James Rupert

Like Poroshenko’s Reception in Congress, It’s a Morale Boost—But Ukraine Is Fighting on Its Own Yesterday’s images from Moscow could hardly be more welcome for Ukrainians: thousands of Russians marching in their capital to condemn their government’s war against Ukraine. The protest was fueled partly by the spreading news in Russia that scores, perhaps hundreds, […]

Russia Ukraine