The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world.

What is strategic foresight?

Foresight is a tool for peering into the future. Pioneered decades ago by public and private sector organizations alike, foresight is a practice area which maps, assesses and forecasts future trends and their interaction. It is an iterative game, which thrives on diversity of input and perspectives, and an essential first step in developing strategies to deal with alternative futures. In a world that is always changing, we believe foresight should become a global mindset.

For a decade, the Atlantic Council’s Foresight, Strategy, and Risks Initiative (FSR) has been a global leader in the strategic foresight space. Under the direction of Dr. Mathew Burrows, who formerly led the National Intelligence Council’s quadrennial Global Trends studies, FSR has identified the world’s key trends and uncertainties and charted pathways to a more prosperous, stable, and peaceful future. FSR is considered a gold standard foresight practice within the United States and around the world.

The issues

FSR Webpage Global Trends

The new decade is in rapid flux and is characterized by geopolitical turbulence, economic complexity, technological disruption, demographic shifts and social interconnectedness. In this changing environment, we focus on identifying the key trends and risks which will fundamentally shape the future of humanity and global affairs. Our work encompasses a wide range of issues, from demography and urbanization to migration, power transitions and global governance, but is always driven by the principle that foresight is a key mindset for decision-making.

FSR Webpage Tech

Technology and innovation

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is already underway. Technological development will fundamentally alter the global geopolitical landscape by changing governance structures, challenging human ingenuity and demanding innovative policy responses. Our team analyzes the political, socioeconomic, ecological, and security implications of emerging technologies, maps the evolution of innovation ecosystems and distills blueprints for entrepreneurship, in the Unites States and globally.

FSR Webpage Geopolitics

Geopolitics

The global power shift towards Asia, the United States’ relative decline and the emergence of transnational threats such as climate change are pulling at the threads of the post-World War II international system. Our team’s research discerns the outline of the dawning multipolar order by exploring power transitions, geopolitical shifts, and civil society movements. At the same time, we seek to challenge the assumptions which have been underpinning US foreign policy for the last 70 years and adapt them for current times.

FSR Webpage Nontrad Security

Non-traditional security challenges

In the 21st century, the definition of security and its global architecture are changing under the pressure of transnational, non-traditional threats such as migration, climate change and inequality, in an unresponsive global governance system. FSR is reframing security policy paradigms by bringing into the fold cutting-edge issues such as environmental security, peacebuilding, resilience and illicit trade, and providing policy solutions for the international community, states and citizens.

The Initiative leverages in-house expertise and cutting-edge tools such as data analytics, modeling, and simulations to provide pioneering research and analysis about the most important challenges of today and tomorrow.

What world post-COVID-19? interview series

This interview series features insights from FSR’s nonresident senior fellows, a set of experts drawn from across a wide range of fields, discussing the potential impacts of COVID-19.

us navy military what world post-covid 19 kim roberts

Blog Post

Jul 20, 2020

What world post COVID-19?: A conversation with Dr. Kim Roberts

By Anca Agachi, Peter Engelke

Dr. Kim Roberts, security studies expert, discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed thinking around national security and the US role in the world, and outlines the uncertainties ahead.

China Coronavirus

Blog Post

Jul 23, 2020

What world post COVID-19?: A conversation with Mr. Greg Lindsay

By Peter Engelke, Anca Agachi

Greg Lindsay, director of applied research at NewCities, outlines the implications of the pandemic for the future of cities and shares suggestions for how communities could emerge from this crisis stronger than before.

Civil Society Climate Change & Climate Action

Blog Post

Jul 29, 2020

What world post COVID-19?: A conversation with Dr. Joe Mascaro

By Peter Engelke, Anca Agachi

Dr. Joe Mascaro, director of education and research at Planet, discusses the effects of the pandemic on the environment, and its implications for energy transitions and earth sciences research.

Climate Change & Climate Action Coronavirus

Blog Post

Aug 20, 2020

What world post COVID-19?: A conversation with Dr. Conrad Tucker

By Peter Engelke, Anca Agachi

Dr. Conrad Tucker, professor of mechanical engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, explains how the pandemic is changing the conversations around higher education and emerging technologies.

Coronavirus Education

Blog Post

Sep 3, 2020

What world post COVID-19?: A conversation with Mr. John Raidt

By Peter Engelke, Anca Agachi

Mr. John Raidt, security and public policy expert and practitioner, discusses political dysfunction in the US and the need for democratic renewal in light of the pandemic.

China Civil Society

Leadership

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Content

Report

Apr 11, 2016

Innovation, leadership, and national security

By Franklin D. Kramer and James A. Wrightson, Jr.

This report proposes that both the US government and the American private sector take significant steps to encourage innovation beyond what the United States, already an innovative society, has successfully accomplished.

Defense Technologies Entrepreneurship

New Atlanticist

Apr 7, 2016

Impressions from a Trip to Japan

For one week in February, an Atlantic Council team and peers from Washington-based academic institutions and think tanks visited Tokyo, Hiroshima, Saijo, and Miyajima to learn about the culture, traditions, and international policies of Japan. We attended meetings with representatives of government agencies, private companies, and local think tanks. Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs sponsored […]

Japan

Books

Apr 4, 2016

The Great Acceleration: An Environmental History of the Anthropocene since 1945

By J. R. McNeill and Peter Engelke

The Earth has entered a new age—the Anthropocene—in which humans are the most powerful influence on global ecology. Since the mid-twentieth century, the accelerating pace of energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and population growth has thrust the planet into a massive uncontrolled experiment. The Great Acceleration explains its causes and consequences, highlighting the role of […]

New Atlanticist

Mar 29, 2016

Trump’s ‘Sopranos’ Worldview Would Undo Asian Alliances

By Robert A. Manning

In a series of recent comments—most notably in extensive interviews with the New York Times— Donald Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, has sketched a worldview and policies toward US allies that could unravel the entire post-World War II order. Among other things, Trump says he would renegotiate all existing trade agreements, and […]

East Asia Japan

Report

Mar 29, 2016

Climate change and US national security: Past, present, future

By Peter Engelke and Daniel Chiu

What is the the past, present, and future of climate security in the United States? The question going forward is whether climate security will remain restricted to discussions within academia, civil society, and a few dedicated places within the US government, or if it will acquire a more pivotal role in the formulation of US national security strategy.

Climate Change & Climate Action Energy & Environment

In the News

Mar 22, 2016

Engelke in Los Angeles Times: Will the World’s Next Wars Be Fought Over Water?

By Peter Engelke

Read the full article here.

Climate Change & Climate Action Energy & Environment

In the News

Mar 16, 2016

Burrows Joins hromadske.tv to Discuss the Growing Middle Class in Asia

By Mathew J. Burrows

Watch the full interview here.

China

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Mar 15, 2016

Autocracies failed and unfailed: limited strategies for state building

By Stephen D. Krasner

The fundamental challenge for modern wealthy democracies committed to promoting better governance is that their opportunities are hostage to the preferences of national elites in closed-access polities, where political power is exercised in arbitrary ways, and where most of the population lacks access to services, including the rule of law.

Afghanistan Africa

In the News

Mar 10, 2016

Burrows in The National Interest: Germany Is a Great Power—It Should Act Like One

By Mathew J. Burrows

Read the full article here.

Germany

FutureSource

Mar 3, 2016

Bridging the Security-Democracy Gap: Tools for Responding to Resurgent Authoritarianism

By Torrey Taussig

A quarter-century after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union, leading authoritarian regimes are thriving in the twenty-first century global security environment. As Freedom House reports, “fundamentally antidemocratic governments have strengthened their hold on power by making at least some of the common set of concessions – largely illusory […]

National Security Politics & Diplomacy