Nuclear strategy project

The Scowcroft Center is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces policy for the twenty-first century.

The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

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Principal research areas

Nuclear strategy

Shape US nuclear strategy and implications for extended deterrence, allied assurance, and nuclear escalation. Inform the national and/or international debate concerning potential changes in nuclear strategy and nuclear force structure. Assess the changing requirements for extended deterrence and assurance of allies under nuclear triploarity.

Arms control

Understand and shape the changing nature of and role for arms control in the new trilateral security environment. Assess the relationship between US nuclear deterrence requirements and nuclear arms control to inform US negotiating positions for a potential future arms control framework.

Missile defense

Shape the relationship between homeland missile defense and US nuclear strategy as it relates to North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. Anticipate and inform the national and international debate on new technologies for missile defense and its implications for strategic stability.

Emerging threats

Assess the implications of new threats and technologies for US nuclear deterrence and strategy. Understand and assess which threats have the greatest potential for affecting the military balance and nuclear deterrence.

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Reports & issue briefs

Nuclear strategy project

Report Mar 9, 2026

Strategy for a new nuclear age

By Michael Albertson, Paul Amato, Henry “Trey” Obering, Ankit Panda, Kingston Reif, Amy Woolf

As it carries out strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, the United States confronts a wider and ever more complex landscape of nuclear threats, with Russia, North Korea, and China all boosting their arsenals. In this new nuclear age, how should US policymakers think about force size, arms control, and missile defense?
Arms Control China
Nuclear strategy project

Report Jan 21, 2026

Countering Russian escalation in space

By John Klein, Clementine G. Starling-Daniels

Current US space policy and acquisitions are inadequate to address the growing threats from Russia in space. The United States needs a more resilient space architecture, able to withstand major-power conflict—and Russia’s designs to place a nuclear weapon in orbit. Here are fifteen recommendations to make that happen.
China Missile Defense
Nuclear strategy project

Issue Brief Dec 22, 2025

Nuclear priorities for the Trump administration: A time to decide

By Matthew Kroenig, Jonathan Rosenstein

This report offers recommendations to the Donald Trump administration for policy and investment decisions that will shape this new era of strategic competition in the United States’ favor.
China Missile Defense

Issue Brief

Mar 27, 2026

Deterrence in a two-peer world requires prudence

By Kingston Reif

Washington faces the challenge of preserving credible deterrence and reassuring allies against two potential nuclear peers—possibly acting together—without fueling dangerous instability or draining resources from other defense priorities. This will require a balanced approach that avoids counterproductive arsenal growth.

China Nuclear Deterrence

Issue Brief

Mar 27, 2026

Why US strategic nuclear forces must expand after New START

By Paul Amato

With the New START treaty's caps on the US nuclear force expired, the United States has an opportunity to increase and adapt its nuclear force to deter both Russia and China. Policymakers should seize it.

China Defense Policy

Report

Mar 9, 2026

Strategy for a new nuclear age

By Michael Albertson, Paul Amato, Henry “Trey” Obering, Ankit Panda, Kingston Reif, Amy Woolf

As it carries out strikes on Iran's nuclear program, the United States confronts a wider and ever more complex landscape of nuclear threats, with Russia, North Korea, and China all boosting their arsenals. In this new nuclear age, how should US policymakers think about force size, arms control, and missile defense?

Arms Control China

Issue Brief

Feb 20, 2026

Four options for arms control after New START

By Amy Woolf

With the last quantitative limit on the world's largest nuclear arsenals now expired, Washington finds itself in a new and uncertain era, with less clarity about Russia’s nuclear forces, plans to upgrade its own, and growing concern about China's. The best option may be trilateral talks—but not about a new arms control treaty.

Arms Control China

Report

Jan 21, 2026

Countering Russian escalation in space

By John Klein, Clementine G. Starling-Daniels

Current US space policy and acquisitions are inadequate to address the growing threats from Russia in space. The United States needs a more resilient space architecture, able to withstand major-power conflict—and Russia’s designs to place a nuclear weapon in orbit. Here are fifteen recommendations to make that happen.

China Missile Defense
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Commentary & quick analysis

Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Jun 11, 2025

Many nuclear experts agree that the US needs new capabilities. Now they need to convince the Pentagon.

By Paul Amato

Even as nuclear experts move toward a consensus on what the United States needs, they will need to make their case to a wider set of US decision makers.
Nuclear Deterrence Security & Defense
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Jun 6, 2025

Ukraine’s drone strikes offer four big lessons for US nuclear strategists

By Mark J. Massa

Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb should spur the US government to address strategic vulnerabilities that nuclear strategists have focused on for years.
Defense Policy National Security
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Apr 11, 2024

Is the United States falling behind the North Korean ICBM threat? Congress needs answers.

By Robert Soofer

Washington must not wait until Pyongyang is regularly test-launching ICBMs with multiple re-entry vehicles and countermeasures to improve US defenses.
Defense Technologies Korea

New Atlanticist

Sep 16, 2025

NATO has a gap in its airborne command and control. Here’s how to close it.

By David Julazadeh

As E-3 AWACS aircraft retire, and with new doubts about and delays with the E-7A aircraft set to replace them, the Alliance must take additional steps bridge the gap.

Europe & Eurasia NATO

New Atlanticist

Aug 26, 2025

Five questions (and expert answers) about where the US-South Korea alliance goes from here

By Atlantic Council experts

The US and South Korean presidents met on Monday in Washington to discuss a range of bilateral issues, from security to shipbuilding.

Korea Nuclear Deterrence

Fast Thinking

Jun 22, 2025

How will Iran respond to US strikes on its nuclear program?

By Atlantic Council

Following the US strike on Iranian nuclear sites, Iran’s foreign minister said his country must respond. Atlantic Council experts look at Tehran’s options.

Conflict Iran

New Atlanticist

Jun 12, 2025

Experts react: Israel just attacked Iran’s military and nuclear sites. What’s next?

By Atlantic Council experts

Our experts shed light on Israel’s major attack against Iran targeting its nuclear facilities and its implications for the region.

Conflict Defense Policy

New Atlanticist

Jun 6, 2025

Ukraine’s drone strikes offer four big lessons for US nuclear strategists

By Mark J. Massa

Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb should spur the US government to address strategic vulnerabilities that nuclear strategists have focused on for years.

Defense Policy National Security
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Past events

Online Event Thu, June 5, 2025 • 3:00 pm ET

General Thomas Bussiere on Global Strike Command’s role in strategic deterrence
China Missile Defense Nuclear Deterrence Russia

Transcript

Nov 28, 2023

Our experts explain what US policymakers should know about deterring Russia’s and China’s nuclear threats

The fellows of Forward Defense’s Nuclear Strategy Project met at a roundtable to discuss how to deter nuclear powers Russia and China from expanding their capabilities and from giving nuclear weapons a greater role in Moscow's and Beijing's defense strategies.

China East Asia
Public Event Fri, October 20, 2023 • 11:00 am ET

A strategic posture for a new era: Introducing the Congressional Strategic Posture report
Arms Control China Defense Policy Iran

Transcript

Nov 3, 2022

What’s the future of US nuclear strategy? Top officials dissect the Biden administration’s plans.

Current and former Department of Defense, State, and Energy officials outline the top takeaways from the new NPR at the Atlantic Council.

China Nuclear Deterrence
Public Event Tue, November 1, 2022 • 2:00 am ET

The future of US nuclear strategy: Releasing the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review
China Defense Policy Defense Technologies Iran
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In the news

In the News

Apr 27, 2021

Garlauskas’s proposal featured in RUSI report on North Korea

A report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), based in the UK, discussing sanctions on North Korea featured Markus Garlauskas’s proposal on a new framework for assessing the effectiveness of sanctions on North Korea which he elaborated in a 38 North article.

Financial Sanctions and Economic Coercion Korea

In the News

Apr 21, 2021

Kroenig, Massa, and Trotti quoted in Fox News on ICBM Modernization

By Atlantic Council

On April 21, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security Deputy Director Matthew Kroenig and Forward Defense Assistant Directors Christian Trotti and Mark J. Massa were featured in a Fox News piece on intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) modernization. The piece summarized the arguments for and against the proposed steps to modernize the land-based leg of the triad.

Defense Policy National Security

In the News

Apr 16, 2021

Kroenig and Ashford debate US withdrawal from Afghanistan and Russia’s intentions behind a military buildup on the Ukrainian border

By Atlantic Council

On April 16, Foreign Policy published a biweekly column featuring Scowcroft Center deputy director Matthew Kroenig and New American Engagement Initiative senior fellow Emma Ashford discussing the latest news in international affairs. In this column, they discuss Biden’s plan to withdraw all US forces from Afghanistan by September 11, the significance of Russia military buildup on the border […]

Afghanistan Central Asia

In the News

Apr 8, 2021

Kroenig quoted in USNI News on the Chinese nuclear threat

By Atlantic Council

Deputy Director of the Scowcroft Center Matthew Kroenig was quoted in a USNI News article titled "Russian and Chinese Nuclear Threats Pose Problem for US Deterrence, Experts Say."

China National Security

In the News

Mar 31, 2021

Garlauskas quoted in Reuters on North Korea’s tactical nuclear weapons

Markus Garlauskas was quoted in a Reuters article published on March 30 that discussed North Korea’s potential to develop tactical nuclear weapons. On whether the latest short-range missiles tested by Pyongyang were capable of carrying nuclear weapons, Garlauskas said, “Even short-range North Korean ballistic missiles should be considered nuclear-capable, based on North Korea’s own words.”

Korea Nuclear Deterrence
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Forward Defense leads the Atlantic Council’s US and global defense programming, developing actionable recommendations for the United States and its allies and partners to compete, innovate, and navigate the rapidly evolving character of warfare. Through its work on US defense policy and force design, the military applications of advanced technology, space security, strategic deterrence, and defense industrial revitalization, it informs the strategies, policies, and capabilities that the United States will need to deter, and, if necessary, prevail in major-power conflict.

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