Featured analysis

Latest analysis

EconoGraphics

Apr 1, 2020

Coronavirus versus financial crisis: US policy responses compared

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Nikolai Albishausen

A look at the economic harm done so far and contrasts the measures taken by the Federal Reserve (Fed), Congress, and the G20 in response to coronavirus.

Economy & Business
Macroeconomics

EconoGraphics

Aug 28, 2019

US-EU Auto Tariffs: What’s at Stake?

By OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND, NICK BROWN, ANDREW LASCALEIA

Escalating trade tensions between the world’s major economies are widely considered the greatest threat to the global economy’s health. Following the White House’s cancellation of its threatened tariffs on all Mexican imports on June 7, attention swiftly turned back to the brewing US-China trade war. This edition of the EconoGraphic, however, puts the focus on how US tariffs on cars and car parts might disrupt transatlantic trade flow.

Economy & Business
European Union

EconoGraphics

Aug 9, 2019

Breaking Down France’s Digital Tax

By BY ANDREW LASCALEIA, EDITED BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND AND ANDREW LASCALEIA

In July, France’s parliament ratified a new law to tax big digital tech firms making it the first country to pass a tax law of this manner. Paris’ new tax scheme triggered criticism from the Trump Administration and is further complicating the transatlantic relationship. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the motivation behind taxing digital technology firms more aggressively, the way that the French tax will work, and the potential impacts and response to the tax.

Economy & Business
Financial Regulation

EconoGraphics

Jul 23, 2019

My Way or the Huawei: 5G at the Center of US-China Strategic Competition

By OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND, NICK BROWN, ANDREW LASCALEIA

On July 22, President Trump met with a group of major tech CEOs to discuss the easing of some restrictions on US companies supplying high-tech parts to Chinese telecommunications company Huawei. In May, the US Commerce Department banned US companies from selling any products to Huawei. The Chinese company’s position as the world’s leading provider of 5G technology has made it a focal point of the escalating great power competition between China and the United States. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the US government’s move to blacklist Huawei, outlines the ban’s potential costs, and describes why US allies are conflicted about banning Huawei.

China
Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Jun 3, 2019

US Cuba policy: EU and Canadian firms to suffer?

By BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY SHIQING HUA, FRANCIS AUBEE, AND NICK BROWN

On April 17 2019, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced an important change in the United States’ policy toward Cuba: Title III of the Cuban Liberty and Democracy Solidarity Act of 1996 (LIBERTAD Act) would no longer be suspended. As a result of this decision, US claimants can now seek compensation for property confiscated by the Castro government. The move has important implications for US and foreign companies doing business in Cuba. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the history and purpose of the LIBERTAD Act, evaluates the policy’s potential impact on US allies’ economic interests in Cuba, and highlights its implications for the pressure campaign against the Maduro regime in Venezuela.

Cuba
Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Apr 29, 2019

Central Bank Independence Under Scrutiny

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Francis Aubee

On April 26, following stronger than expected US economic growth numbers, the White House’s National Economic Council director, Larry Kudlow, urged the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

Economy & Business
Financial Regulation

EconoGraphics

Feb 6, 2019

A Breakdown of the Sanctions Deal between the United States and Oleg Deripaska

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Zachary Coles

On January 16, a US Senate resolution to maintain US sanctions on the Russian aluminum giant RUSAL and its holding company EN+ failed to garner the necessary 60 votes to pass. As a result, the Trump administration lifted its economic sanctions on RUSAL and EN+ on January 27.

Economic Sanctions
Economy & Business

Blogs

Dec 21, 2018

Economic Outlook for 2019

By Global Business & Economics Program

December 2018 is set to become the worst year-end finish for US markets since 1931. A yield curve inversion combined with the fourth annual rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing geo-political uncertainty, triggered widespread angst among US investors about an economic slowdown and the increasing probability of a recession. This edition of the EconoGraphic assesses key economic indicators to make a case that while a slowing of the US economy seems certain, a recession in the next two years remains unlikely.

China
Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Dec 5, 2018

Trade Disrupted: US and China Need More Than a Truce

By Ole Moehr

At this year’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the trade dispute between China and the United States took center stage. Chinese President Xi and his US counterpart President Donald Trump agreed to avoid further escalations of the ongoing bilateral trade war for the next 90 days. The temporary deal does not assuage the escalatory measures already taken, leaving the existing tariffs in place. This edition of the EconoGraphic explores how the brewing trade conflict is impacting manufacturing supply chains, soybean cargo routes, and trade flows of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) among the United States, China, and the rest of the world.

China
Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Oct 30, 2018

SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran

By Ole Moehr

With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.

Economic Sanctions
Economy & Business

Content

EconoGraphics

Jun 20, 2017

Balancing Act

By Samuel Weitzman

On June 12, in US President Donald J. Trump’s first full cabinet meeting, the new US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer briefly encapsulated the young administration’s philosophy on international trade: “Deficits do matter, and ours are coming down.” This is not a particularly partisan view; Trump’s opponent in the 2016 presidential election, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, spoke out against the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) during her campaign despite supporting it previously.

Economy & Business
Trade and tariffs

EconoGraphics

Jun 9, 2017

A Vital Foreign Policy Tool

By Ole Moehr

This is the first EconoGraphic as part of our recently launched Economic Sanctions Initiative. The initiative aims to promote dialogue between the public and the private sector to investigate how to improve the design and implementation process of economic sanctions.

Economic Sanctions
Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Apr 19, 2017

The European Stability Mechanism

By Lu Ding & Ole Moehr

The global economic and financial crisis, which originated in the United States in 2008, ultimately triggered a sovereign debt crisis in Europe in 2010. As a result of sky high debts, economies lacking in competitiveness, and over lenient banking regulations, the credit ratings of the Eurozone members Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain plummeted. These countries began facing prohibitively high interest rates when they attempted to borrow from international credit markets.

Economy & Business
European Union

EconoGraphics

Mar 17, 2017

The United States Needs Europe And Vice Versa (Pt. 3)

By Lu Ding & Ole Moehr

This EconoGraphic is the final edition of a three-part series on why the United States and Europe need each other. The series highlights excerpts from the EuroGrowth Task Force’s inaugural report on European economic growth and why it matters for US prosperity.

Economy & Business
Europe & Eurasia

EconoGraphics

Mar 7, 2017

The United States Needs Europe And Vice Versa (Pt. 2)

By Lu Ding & Ole Moehr

US economic ties with the European Union (27) generate the largest global bilateral trade flows, worth an estimated $2.4 billion per day. The massive volume of US-EU (27) bilateral trade promotes prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic.

Economy & Business
Europe & Eurasia

EconoGraphics

Feb 22, 2017

The United States Needs Europe and Vice-Versa

By Lu Ding & Ole Moehr

The United States is the world’s largest recipient of global foreign direct investment (FDI). On a current-cost basis, the US FDI stock was more than three times larger than that of the second largest destination country in 2014, the most recent year from which statistics are available. Despite the current fragile global economy and great political uncertainty, foreign investment in the United States remains strong.

Economy & Business
European Union

EconoGraphics

Dec 12, 2016

Refer-Ending Renzi’s Government

By Filippos Letsas

On December 4, Italian voters rejected former Prime Minister Renzi’s constitutional reform referendum. The result of the referendum renewed concerns about the economic recovery in Italy, stability of the Euro, broader European economic integration, and rising populism across Europe. In the week following the referendum, global markets have focused their attention on the ailing Italian banking sector.

Economy & Business
Europe & Eurasia

EconoGraphics

Nov 29, 2016

The United States Needs China and Vice-Versa

By Filippos Letsas

Over the last decade, China’s large holdings of US debt have helped the Bank of China keep the value of the renminbi artificially low. This strengthened China’s competitive position in the global markets, allowing for cheaper Chinese exports and contributed significantly to China’s large trade surplus, which now accounts for about half of the total US trade deficit.

China
Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Oct 25, 2016

CETA: Why “Comprehensive” Matters

By Filippos Letsas

On October 14th, the regional parliament of Wallonia, a French-speaking region of 3.6 million people in Belgium, voted to block the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), a proposed trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and Canada, which has been negotiated for over 7 years.

Economy & Business
European Union

EconoGraphics

Oct 7, 2016

Europe′s Fiscal Burden in Focus

By Filippos Letsas

The European Union’s (EU) Stability and Growth Pact requires Eurozone countries to annually lay out their fiscal plans for the following three years. The European Commission (EC) then compares the member states’ reports with its own projections and those produced by independent bodies, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to evaluate whether the member states are on track to reach their Medium-Term Budgetary Objectives (MTOs).

Economy & Business
European Union