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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

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Latest analysis

UkraineAlert

Feb 15, 2016

Who Should Pay for the Restoration of the Donbas?

By Anders Åslund

It appears a real possibility that the Donbas will be reunified with the rest of Ukraine this year: its occupation simply costs the Kremlin too much. Its Novorossiya project has failed, and the Donbas on its own has no appeal to the Russian people. And Russia cannot get rid of the current suffocating financial sanctions […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 10, 2016

Where is Ukraine’s Government Headed Now? Four Possible Scenarios

By Tim Ash

Ukraine’s ongoing political crisis offers observers an opportunity to analyze the current state of affairs and determine likely scenarios for the country’s political future in the near term. First, the recent resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius from the position of Minister of Economic Development and Trade did not appear to be coordinated with either the reform […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Ukraine’s Got a Real Army Now. But Is It Preparing to Fight the Last Battle?

By Ruben Gzirian

The prolonged stalemate of Minsk II has provided the Ukrainian military ample opportunity to address a series of longstanding challenges stretching back to the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych. While it is clear that the Ukrainian military has improved since its disastrous defeat at Debaltseve in February 2015, evaluating the real effect of ongoing reforms is […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Dutch Likely to Hand Putin a Major Symbolic Victory in Referendum on EU-Ukraine Association Agreement

By Andreas Umland

There is something odd about the upcoming Dutch plebiscite on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. On April 6, the Netherlands will hold a national referendum on a treaty between Brussels and Kyiv that was signed in 2014 and ratified in 2015. Yet, the European Union and the European Community have, during the last sixty years, concluded […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Actually, No. Russia and Ukraine Are Not Equally Delinquent When It Comes to Fulfilling Minsk

By Paul Niland

One of the most startling examples of the adage “there are two sides to every story” is the difference in perceptions over the implementation of the Minsk Agreements between Ukraine and Russia. Minsk, if handled in good faith, could be the roadmap to deescalate the war in Ukraine and bring peace to the region. In […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 8, 2016

What’s Behind the Resignation of Minister Abromavicius?

By Basil A. Kalymon and Oleh Havrylyshyn

The resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius from the position of Minister of Economic Development and Trade is another nail in the coffin for the hopes for serious reform in Ukraine. In resigning, he follows in the footsteps of his predecessor Pavlo Sheremeta, who was also unwilling to serve in a government that was more interested in […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 5, 2016

Putin Corners Himself in Ukraine. We Would Be Crazy to Placate Him Now

By Diane Francis

The recent backroom bilateral talks between the United States and Russia about Ukraine have caused anxiety in the region, raised hopes that sanctions could be lifted, and elevated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s status to super power level. All are counterproductive. Since the bilateral talks and optimistic statements by US Secretary of State John Kerry about […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2016

Why Do Ukraine’s Reform Ministers Keep Quitting?

By Anders Åslund

On February 3, Ukraine’s Minister of Economic Development and Trade Aivaras Abromavicius announced his resignation at a press briefing with a big bang that may unleash a political crisis and shake the country’s fragile finances. Abromavicius, a 40-year-old investment banker of Lithuanian origin who has lived in Kyiv for many years as a fund manager, […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2016

Only Presidential Leadership Can Avert Ukraine’s Perfect Storm

By Adrian Karatnycky

The February 3 resignation of Ukraine’s Economy Minister Aivaras Abromavicius is a signal that the country’s efforts to dramatically reduce corruption and rent-seeking are meeting with serious resistance. The resignation also exposes how Ukraine’s political system works. Just as in established democracies, technocrats and experts have to make common cause with politicians and ideologues. And […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2016

Russian Propaganda in Ukraine: Fighting Phantoms

By Roman Shutov

For Ukrainians, the war in eastern Ukraine has become an everyday reality. Only two years ago, though, no one in the country believed war was possible—and certainly no one expected that propaganda would be one of its main weapons. Since Ukraine’s independence in 1991, little attention was paid to building a system that would ensure […]

Russia Ukraine

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UkraineAlert

May 20, 2019

Q&A: Ukraine’s got a new president. How did he do on inauguration day?

By Melinda Haring

On May 20, Volodymyr Zelenskiy was sworn in as Ukraine’s sixth president. His inauguration speech was ambitious: he called for early elections, urged parliament to end parliamentary immunity, pass electoral reform and the law on illegal enrichment. He also wants parliament to sack the head of the SBU, the prosecutor general, and the minister of […]

Conflict Democratic Transitions

UkraineAlert

May 17, 2019

Nazi-Soviet Pact anniversary can help Zelenskiy heal Ukraine’s totalitarian trauma

By Peter Dickinson

Ukraine’s President-elect Volodymyr Zelenskiy waded into the bloodstained waters of the country’s memory wars during WWII memorial events in early May, posting a picture of himself alongside a Soviet veteran and a former member of Ukraine’s Insurgent Army with the message: “The key to peace today is unity among all Ukrainians.” This was something of […]

Civil Society Conflict

UkraineAlert

May 16, 2019

Why the West must lean in now

By Michael Carpenter

On April 21, TV comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy won a landslide victory over incumbent President Petro Poroshenko in the second round of Ukraine’s presidential election. By winning an impressive 73 percent of the vote, Zelenskiy secured a strong popular mandate. Questions abound about Zelenskiy’s core political beliefs and whether his performance in office will match his […]

Conflict Corruption

UkraineAlert

May 16, 2019

Ukraine needs all the friends it can get. So why did it boot the American ambassador early?

By Mykola Vorobiov

Last week the Trump administration recalled US Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch two months earlier than expected. Various forces within Ukraine’s presidential administration, including the attorney general, had been calling for her head after she gave a speech that pointed out Ukraine’s lackluster commitment to reform on Poroshenko’s watch. The lack of an ambassador puts […]

Elections Political Reform

UkraineAlert

May 14, 2019

Ukraine’s most urgent need

By Peter Dickinson

Ukrainians have considerable experience of the hope that comes with new beginnings and the disillusionment that often follows. The country has lived through repeated false dawns over the past three decades, only for the same old bad habits to come creeping out of the shadows and reassert their debilitating grip on the nation. The arrival […]

Democratic Transitions Elections

UkraineAlert

May 14, 2019

Even if Ukraine’s reformers unify, so what?

By Melinda Haring

Five years after the Euromaidan street protests, Ukrainians are still waiting for transformative leaders and justice. On May 20, political newcomer Volodymyr Zelenskiy will be sworn in as president. But that won’t necessarily result in a significant change for the country: Ukraine’s next president is inexperienced and his links to oligarchs are troubling. Its parliament, […]

Civil Society Elections

UkraineAlert

May 13, 2019

Will Ukraine become a giant Moldova?

By James Brooke

Without a red-tape slashing revolution, Ukraine will become a big Moldova—a bedroom country for migrant workers building the dynamic economies of eastern Europe.

Migration Moldova

UkraineAlert

May 8, 2019

Zelenskyy’s first big test

By Basil Kalymon

A key issue has emerged in the post-election drama in Ukraine. In a disturbing interview given by Andrij Bohdan, lawyer, confidant, and political advisor to President-elect Volodymyr Zelenskiy, he reveals that he continues to act as a lawyer for oligarch Ihor Kolomoiskiy with regard to the nationalization of PrivatBank. This assertion, if accepted by the […]

Corruption Financial Regulation

UkraineAlert

May 8, 2019

Reality check

By Bohdan Nahaylo

Ukraine’s presidential election was a veritable political earthquake. The fault line between the old and the new, the real and the illusory, and pseudo-nationalism and grassroots patriotism, has been dramatically exposed. The old political establishment was shaken to its very foundations, and the strong tremors and shockwaves continue to be felt. The shifting political tectonic […]

Elections Nationalism

UkraineAlert

May 6, 2019

Why we can’t get enough of Ukraine

By Francis Fukuyama

The impact one can have on building institutions like the modern state, the rule of law, and democracy is limited. The area where it’s easiest is the third category, building democracy. The first two, building the modern state and building a real rule of law, are much harder, and those are the areas that have been […]

Corruption Democratic Transitions