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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.


editor’s picks

Latest analysis


UkraineAlert

Feb 15, 2016

Who Should Pay for the Restoration of the Donbas?

By
Anders Åslund

It appears a real possibility that the Donbas will be reunified with the rest of Ukraine this year: its occupation simply costs the Kremlin too much. Its Novorossiya project has failed, and the Donbas on its own has no appeal to the Russian people. And Russia cannot get rid of the current suffocating financial sanctions […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 10, 2016

Where is Ukraine’s Government Headed Now? Four Possible Scenarios

By
Tim Ash

Ukraine’s ongoing political crisis offers observers an opportunity to analyze the current state of affairs and determine likely scenarios for the country’s political future in the near term. First, the recent resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius from the position of Minister of Economic Development and Trade did not appear to be coordinated with either the reform […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Ukraine’s Got a Real Army Now. But Is It Preparing to Fight the Last Battle?

By
Ruben Gzirian

The prolonged stalemate of Minsk II has provided the Ukrainian military ample opportunity to address a series of longstanding challenges stretching back to the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych. While it is clear that the Ukrainian military has improved since its disastrous defeat at Debaltseve in February 2015, evaluating the real effect of ongoing reforms is […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Dutch Likely to Hand Putin a Major Symbolic Victory in Referendum on EU-Ukraine Association Agreement

By
Andreas Umland

There is something odd about the upcoming Dutch plebiscite on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. On April 6, the Netherlands will hold a national referendum on a treaty between Brussels and Kyiv that was signed in 2014 and ratified in 2015. Yet, the European Union and the European Community have, during the last sixty years, concluded […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Actually, No. Russia and Ukraine Are Not Equally Delinquent When It Comes to Fulfilling Minsk

By
Paul Niland

One of the most startling examples of the adage “there are two sides to every story” is the difference in perceptions over the implementation of the Minsk Agreements between Ukraine and Russia. Minsk, if handled in good faith, could be the roadmap to deescalate the war in Ukraine and bring peace to the region. In […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 8, 2016

What’s Behind the Resignation of Minister Abromavicius?

By
Basil A. Kalymon and Oleh Havrylyshyn

The resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius from the position of Minister of Economic Development and Trade is another nail in the coffin for the hopes for serious reform in Ukraine. In resigning, he follows in the footsteps of his predecessor Pavlo Sheremeta, who was also unwilling to serve in a government that was more interested in […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 5, 2016

Putin Corners Himself in Ukraine. We Would Be Crazy to Placate Him Now

By
Diane Francis

The recent backroom bilateral talks between the United States and Russia about Ukraine have caused anxiety in the region, raised hopes that sanctions could be lifted, and elevated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s status to super power level. All are counterproductive. Since the bilateral talks and optimistic statements by US Secretary of State John Kerry about […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2016

Why Do Ukraine’s Reform Ministers Keep Quitting?

By
Anders Åslund

On February 3, Ukraine’s Minister of Economic Development and Trade Aivaras Abromavicius announced his resignation at a press briefing with a big bang that may unleash a political crisis and shake the country’s fragile finances. Abromavicius, a 40-year-old investment banker of Lithuanian origin who has lived in Kyiv for many years as a fund manager, […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2016

Only Presidential Leadership Can Avert Ukraine’s Perfect Storm

By
Adrian Karatnycky

The February 3 resignation of Ukraine’s Economy Minister Aivaras Abromavicius is a signal that the country’s efforts to dramatically reduce corruption and rent-seeking are meeting with serious resistance. The resignation also exposes how Ukraine’s political system works. Just as in established democracies, technocrats and experts have to make common cause with politicians and ideologues. And […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2016

Russian Propaganda in Ukraine: Fighting Phantoms

By
Roman Shutov

For Ukrainians, the war in eastern Ukraine has become an everyday reality. Only two years ago, though, no one in the country believed war was possible—and certainly no one expected that propaganda would be one of its main weapons. Since Ukraine’s independence in 1991, little attention was paid to building a system that would ensure […]


Russia


Ukraine

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.

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UkraineAlert

Apr 7, 2016

You Wouldn’t Think It from the Headlines, but Ukraine Is Making Progress

By Michael Druckman and Katie LaRoque

It’s been a rough several weeks for Ukraine in the news. From the firing of prominent reformer Davit Sakvarelidze from the Prosecutor General’s Office to the recent release of the “Panama Papers,” which seemingly link President Petro Poroshenko to several offshore accounts and sparked accusations from members of the Verkhovna Rada of abuse of office […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Apr 7, 2016

How Ukraine Can Contribute to NATO’s Forward Defense

By Ian J. Brzezinski and Markian Bilynskyj

NATO has decided to bolster its military operations in Central Europe to better deter and, if necessary, defend against Russian aggression. Toward that end, Alliance military authorities have been tasked to develop plans for the deployment of multinational units, possibly battalions or brigades, that will be deployed on a persistent basis along NATO’s eastern frontier. […]

NATO Russia

UkraineAlert

Apr 6, 2016

Obama Silent on Violence in Nagorno-Karabakh, While Putin Plans Shuttle Diplomacy

By Matthew J. Bryza

Absence of US Leadership May Have Consequences in Syria, Ukraine, and Beyond The United States has been conspicuously absent during the latest crisis over Azerbaijan’s breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). The White House has not yet issued a statement on this unprecedented uptick in violence. US Secretary of State John Kerry’s statement released on April […]

Syria The Caucasus

UkraineAlert

Apr 6, 2016

New Schedule for Minsk Implementation Urgently Needed

By Maksym Khylko

For several months, the Minsk peace process has been in a stalemate. Meetings of the Trilateral Contact Group and the Normandy Four have failed to make progress on the issue of elections in the Russian-occupied areas of the Donbas. The fourth provision of the Minsk II agreement envisages that local elections should be discussed “in […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Apr 5, 2016

Ukraine’s Got a Real Shot at NATO Membership

By Stephen Blank

A Reply to Andreas Umland Andreas Umland writes that it would be senseless for Ukraine to aspire to NATO membership though it is desirable. The main reasons he cites are the dawning realization of the danger and potent threat that Russia presents to both Eastern Europe and the West, coupled with a residual unwillingness to […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Apr 5, 2016

Ukraine’s Understandable But Senseless Hope for NATO Membership

By Andreas Umland

Moscow’s aggression against Kyiv has led to a marked growth in Ukrainians’ support for their country’s accession to NATO. During the last two years, Ukrainian public opinion has made a U-turn, from skepticism of the Atlantic alliance to an enthusiastic embrace. Until 2013, almost two-thirds of Ukrainians strongly opposed NATO membership. In a July 2015 […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Apr 5, 2016

Now Is Not the Time to Bury Minsk

By Paul Niland

Is the Minsk peace process dead? Not yet. But it is not being respected, and a great deal of work is being done to undermine the process and essentially call it off. Sometimes this is even being done by well-meaning people who actually support Ukraine in one way or another. Comments and tweets from politicians […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Apr 5, 2016

The New York Times Was Right about Ukraine’s Corruption Problem

By Halya Coynash

Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko dismissed the recent New York Times editorial “Ukraine’s Unyielding Corruption” as “part of the hybrid war against Ukraine” at a press conference on April 1 in Washington, DC. The editorial’s tone and substance were certainly lightyears away from the President’s own rosy assessment given on March 31. So who’s right? While […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Apr 4, 2016

The Battles Are in the Donbas, But the War Is in the Energy Sector

By Anders Åslund

The energy sector is key to the success of Ukraine’s economic reforms, battle against corruption, and independence from Russia. Ukraine carried out far-reaching reforms to the energy sector in 2015; now it must complete the substantial reforms that have been undertaken. Energy is the linchpin of Ukraine’s dependence on Russia. The Kremlin has used energy […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 30, 2016

Revealing Europe’s Best-Kept Secret

By Peter Dickinson and Vladislav Davidzon

Early April will see the closure of Ukraine Today, which had been the only full-time English language TV news service offering Ukrainian perspectives to international audiences. The channel will reportedly continue online, but the end of its broadcasting is a sobering development hinting at the difficulties of finding sufficient funding for major Ukrainian English-language media […]

Russia Ukraine