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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.


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Latest analysis


UkraineAlert

Feb 15, 2016

Who Should Pay for the Restoration of the Donbas?

By
Anders Åslund

It appears a real possibility that the Donbas will be reunified with the rest of Ukraine this year: its occupation simply costs the Kremlin too much. Its Novorossiya project has failed, and the Donbas on its own has no appeal to the Russian people. And Russia cannot get rid of the current suffocating financial sanctions […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 10, 2016

Where is Ukraine’s Government Headed Now? Four Possible Scenarios

By
Tim Ash

Ukraine’s ongoing political crisis offers observers an opportunity to analyze the current state of affairs and determine likely scenarios for the country’s political future in the near term. First, the recent resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius from the position of Minister of Economic Development and Trade did not appear to be coordinated with either the reform […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Ukraine’s Got a Real Army Now. But Is It Preparing to Fight the Last Battle?

By
Ruben Gzirian

The prolonged stalemate of Minsk II has provided the Ukrainian military ample opportunity to address a series of longstanding challenges stretching back to the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych. While it is clear that the Ukrainian military has improved since its disastrous defeat at Debaltseve in February 2015, evaluating the real effect of ongoing reforms is […]


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UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Dutch Likely to Hand Putin a Major Symbolic Victory in Referendum on EU-Ukraine Association Agreement

By
Andreas Umland

There is something odd about the upcoming Dutch plebiscite on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. On April 6, the Netherlands will hold a national referendum on a treaty between Brussels and Kyiv that was signed in 2014 and ratified in 2015. Yet, the European Union and the European Community have, during the last sixty years, concluded […]


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UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Actually, No. Russia and Ukraine Are Not Equally Delinquent When It Comes to Fulfilling Minsk

By
Paul Niland

One of the most startling examples of the adage “there are two sides to every story” is the difference in perceptions over the implementation of the Minsk Agreements between Ukraine and Russia. Minsk, if handled in good faith, could be the roadmap to deescalate the war in Ukraine and bring peace to the region. In […]


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UkraineAlert

Feb 8, 2016

What’s Behind the Resignation of Minister Abromavicius?

By
Basil A. Kalymon and Oleh Havrylyshyn

The resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius from the position of Minister of Economic Development and Trade is another nail in the coffin for the hopes for serious reform in Ukraine. In resigning, he follows in the footsteps of his predecessor Pavlo Sheremeta, who was also unwilling to serve in a government that was more interested in […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 5, 2016

Putin Corners Himself in Ukraine. We Would Be Crazy to Placate Him Now

By
Diane Francis

The recent backroom bilateral talks between the United States and Russia about Ukraine have caused anxiety in the region, raised hopes that sanctions could be lifted, and elevated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s status to super power level. All are counterproductive. Since the bilateral talks and optimistic statements by US Secretary of State John Kerry about […]


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UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2016

Why Do Ukraine’s Reform Ministers Keep Quitting?

By
Anders Åslund

On February 3, Ukraine’s Minister of Economic Development and Trade Aivaras Abromavicius announced his resignation at a press briefing with a big bang that may unleash a political crisis and shake the country’s fragile finances. Abromavicius, a 40-year-old investment banker of Lithuanian origin who has lived in Kyiv for many years as a fund manager, […]


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UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2016

Only Presidential Leadership Can Avert Ukraine’s Perfect Storm

By
Adrian Karatnycky

The February 3 resignation of Ukraine’s Economy Minister Aivaras Abromavicius is a signal that the country’s efforts to dramatically reduce corruption and rent-seeking are meeting with serious resistance. The resignation also exposes how Ukraine’s political system works. Just as in established democracies, technocrats and experts have to make common cause with politicians and ideologues. And […]


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UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2016

Russian Propaganda in Ukraine: Fighting Phantoms

By
Roman Shutov

For Ukrainians, the war in eastern Ukraine has become an everyday reality. Only two years ago, though, no one in the country believed war was possible—and certainly no one expected that propaganda would be one of its main weapons. Since Ukraine’s independence in 1991, little attention was paid to building a system that would ensure […]


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Ukraine

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.

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UkraineAlert

Oct 16, 2014

Putin’s Balkan Gambit

By Damon Wilson

Buoyed by Successes in Europe’s East, Russia’s Leader Turns His Gaze to Serbia and Its Neighbors Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine aims to deny that nation a European future, partly by closing the door permanently to membership in NATO or the European Union. Putin’s aims, however, are not limited to extending a Russian […]

Russia The Balkans

UkraineAlert

Oct 10, 2014

General Wesley Clark: America’s Global Strategy Begins With Ukraine

By James Rupert

Former NATO Commander Says Every US Strategic Interest Is Tied to Russia-Ukraine Crisis America’s five most broadly dangerous 21st-century challenges are disparate, says former presidential candidate and retired senior general Wesley Clark. They stretch from an aggressive China and frail cyber-security to climatic disruptions, unstable financial systems, and terrorism rooted in the Islamic world. All […]

Eastern Europe NATO

UkraineAlert

Oct 6, 2014

Four More Crimean Tatars Vanish, One Dead Amid Russian Crackdown

By James Rupert

19 Tatars Abducted or Disappeared Since Moscow’s Takeover of Crimea At least nineteen ethnic Tatars have been abducted or have disappeared in Russian-ruled Crimea, four of them in the past ten days, Tatar and human rights activists say. Russian authorities up to the office of President Vladimir Putin have promised to investigate the disappearances, which […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Oct 3, 2014

Ukraine’s New Parliament Will Strengthen Poroshenko, but Independents Will Make It Unpredictable

By New Atlanticist

Analysis: Putin Unlikely to Scrap the Ceasefire Before October 26 Vote While Russia’s President Vladimir Putin still has unmet ambitions in Ukraine, he is likely to avoid launching any new military offensive there before Ukraine’s October 26 parliamentary election, writes Timothy Ash, an economist who directs emerging markets strategy at Standard Bank in London. Putin […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Oct 3, 2014

Can US Support for Ukraine Help Prevent a New Russian Invasion?

By James Rupert

Canadian Analyst Says US Should Signal Moscow To Avoid Any Assault in South Amid the relative lull in the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukrainian military specialists say Russia may soon re-invade Ukraine to seize a critical overland supply route to Crimea. But some analysts and officials in the West are less worried. In the end, says military […]

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UkraineAlert

Sep 29, 2014

As Winter Nears in Ukraine, Will Moscow Attempt Another Strategic Invasion?

By James Rupert

Continued Attacks Show Kremlin May Be Preparing Drive Toward Crimea, Analysts Say Distracted US and European policymakers may feel grateful that this month’s truce has slowed the Russia-Ukraine war. The Obama administration is seized with the Syria-Iraq crisis and Congress has gone home to campaign for the November 4 election. Europe faces an internal battle […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 25, 2014

Ukraine’s Parliamentary Election: Poroshenko Leads Big at Campaign’s Start

By James Rupert

Early Voter Surveys Reflect Anti-Russian, Pro-Independence Mood Ukrainians will elect a new parliament in exactly thirty days, completing the electoral portion of the political revolution triggered by last winter’s Maidan movement. As the campaign began in recent weeks, two Ukrainian polling organizations conducted surveys that yielded similar numbers on the early mindset of Ukraine’s electorate. […]

Elections Politics & Diplomacy

UkraineAlert

Sep 25, 2014

A Dangerous October: Ukraine Contests an Election As It Fears a Truce

By John E. Herbst

Kyiv Feels Little Supported by the West, Hopes to Survive an Unequal Ceasefire With Russia KYIVA junction of war and politics dominates public life in Ukraine as autumn settles firmly in Kyiv. An unequal cease-fire this month in southeast Ukraine will let Moscow maintain there a core of the invasion force it sent in last […]

Elections Politics & Diplomacy

UkraineAlert

Sep 23, 2014

Russia Cracks Down in Crimea, Shuts Tatar Community Offices

By James Rupert

Police, Masked Thugs Bar Tatar, Other Ethnic Leaders From Attending UN Conference Today Russian authorities in Crimea have moved since last week to silence and isolate the peninsula’s main ethnic Tatar community and political organization, the Mejlis. Russia’s government has shut down the group’s headquarters in Crimea and tried to prevent Tatar representatives from attending […]

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UkraineAlert

Sep 22, 2014

Russians Protest Putin’s War on Ukraine: What Does It Mean for Kyiv?

By James Rupert

Like Poroshenko’s Reception in Congress, It’s a Morale Boost—But Ukraine Is Fighting on Its Own Yesterday’s images from Moscow could hardly be more welcome for Ukrainians: thousands of Russians marching in their capital to condemn their government’s war against Ukraine. The protest was fueled partly by the spreading news in Russia that scores, perhaps hundreds, […]

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