What world post-COVID-19? Three scenarios
The COVID-19 pandemic presents a substantial shock to the postwar order, established by the United States and its allies. For the past 75 years, the United States and its partners have led a rules-based system predicated on liberal democratic values, an open and thriving global economy, and formal institutional bodies backed by powerful democratic states. But this order has not gone unchallenged, and the current pandemic threatens the future of the system at large. A downturn in Western economies could boost a rising China, while a global depression could breed support for protectionism. International bodies designed to safeguard public health appear weak and unable to contain the crisis, and alliances with transatlantic partners are fraying as nations turn inward and close borders. Sustaining and revitalizing the rules-based order that has guaranteed freedom, prosperity, and peace for decades requires a decisive global and US-led response to the pandemic.
This paper is a preliminary look at the geopolitical implications of a crisis that is still unfolding. Three scenarios are sketched out for the possible direction of the global system post-COVID-19. The Scowcroft Center’s Foresight, Strategy, and Risks Initiative will continue to follow the course of the coronavirus, paying close attention to its geopolitical, economic, and social implications. In a situation of intense crisis, scenarios help to reduce the scope of possibilities, decrease uncertainty, and make the different options more visible. In using scenarios as a tool to manage deep uncertainty in a complex, volatile environment, the United States and its allies and partners can be more strategically agile and make better long-term decisions that protect and advance common interests.
The full text of the paper is split across the various articles linked below. Readers can browse in any order. To download a PDF version, use the button below.
See where US leadership is most vulnerable
Tue, Jul 7, 2020
A step change in Sino-American relations
Bipartisan agreement that China is to blame for the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with frustration that China is pulling out of the crisis before the US, could strengthen China’s authoritarian tendencies while pushing the US toward isolationism.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke
Tue, Jul 7, 2020
Another test for Europe
The third pan-European crisis in a decade could further weaken EU solidarity, further widening gaps between Northern Europe and the Mediterranean South. Europe is unlikely to retain a multilateralist framework without US assistance and acquiescence from China.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke
Tue, Jul 7, 2020
East Asian allies dismayed by America first approach
Absent a vibrant American commitment to helping its traditional East Asian allies restart their economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, China could step in, gaining influence in East Asia at the US’s expense.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke
Tue, Jul 7, 2020
Middle East in turmoil even before pandemic hit
Weak public health systems, an over-reliance on hydrocarbons for economic growth, and a collapse in tourism point to particular disaster across the Middle East. Recovery will be long and slow absent intervention from non-regional powers.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke
Tue, Jul 7, 2020
Africa left to deal alone with the pandemic?
The lack of robust public health systems and manufacturing basis plus rapid urbanization point to particular difficulties in weathering the COVID-19 pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa. The continent’s recovery will be shaped by US, Chinese and European engagement.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke
Tue, Jul 7, 2020
An economic test for Putin and Russia
Russia faces threats on two fronts: A notoriously fragile health system leaves puts Russia in a poor position to weather a prolonged COVID-related shutdown, while its ongoing energy price war with Saudi Arabia leaves little capacity to kickstart post-COVID economic growth.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke
Tue, Jul 7, 2020
Latin America vulnerable to commodity cycle
Weak health care systems, tight state budgets and dense, low-income cities—plus an over-reliance on commodities in many countries—create potential hotspots across Latin America and open the possibility of a new front in the battle for influence between the US and China.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke
Tue, Jul 7, 2020
India and South Asia: potential humanitarian disaster
A disorganized—and perhaps tardy—COVID-19 lockdown could mean food shortages and high mortality rates for India, while Pakistan’s military, religious and civil leaders offer contradictory directives that could overwhelm the country’s weak public health system.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke
Scenarios for a post-COVID world
Tue, Jul 7, 2020
Scenario 1: Great accelerator downwards
In the gloomiest of three post-COVID-19 scenarios, the United States, Europe, and China all struggle to recover despite major fiscal and monetary efforts. A global depression unlike anything seen since the 1930s grips the world as countries embrace isolationism and open conflict looms between the US and a China-Russia alliance.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke
Tue, Jul 7, 2020
Scenario 2: China first
The second of our preliminary post-COVID scenarios features an ascendant China, as it deploys its “Belts and Roads” assistance to own large portions of infrastructure in Asia, Africa and Latin America. A new cold war looms as the U.S. and Europe draw closer to counter a growing China-Russia alliance.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke
Tue, Jul 7, 2020
Scenario 3: New Renaissance
The most hopeful of our three preliminary post-COVID scenarios sees the world drawing together in increased cooperation. A new commitment to better governance leads to the creation of international bodies to counter global threats such as disease, conflict, and climate. Improved international cooperation leads to a V-shaped recovery as major economies resume growth.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke