Scowcroft Center Commentary, Analysis, & Reports

Ahmadinejad Dinner’s Main Course Is All Image

By Frederick Kempe

The questions I had scribbled in my notebook, going into what would become a three-hour dinner meeting with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, were key to knowing how dangerous he might be. 1) How much power does he have? 2) Is he as deranged as his rhetoric would suggest? Behind the first question was whether he […]

Iraq Debate: Strategy Not Tactics

The current debate on Iraq is wrongly “focused on the tactics of the moment” rather than the long-term strategic questions, retired Marine General James L. Jones told a full house at the Atlantic Council and a C-SPAN audience. The way forward requires thinking “beyond the next election.” Download the PDF

Independent Commision on the Security Forces of Iraq

Retired Marine General James Jones, Chairman of the Atlantic Council, chaired the Committee that produced this report assessing Iraq’s national police force. The report’s overall assessment said “the Iraqi armed forces – Army, Special Forces, Navy, and Air Force – are increasingly effective and are capable of assuming greater responsibility for the internal security of […]

Korea and Northeast Asia peace and security framework

The United States has few more important policy goals than eliminating North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. The risk that the repressive Pyongyang regime could transfer nuclear weapons and materials to rogue states or terrorist groups weighs particularly heavy on the minds of U.S. policymakers. Executive Summary U.S. negotiators in February 2007 achieved a breakthrough in […]

U.S. Challenges and Choices in the Gulf: Saudi Arabia

The September 11th terrorist attacks and their aftermath have not altered Saudi Arabia’s fundamental importance in the international arena nor its importance to the United States. Saudi Arabia remains the source of much of the world’s oil reserves, the site of the holiest places in Islam, and the crossroad of strategic lines of communication between […]

Intelligence Sharing: Getting the National Counterterrorism Analysts on the Same Data Sheet

Colonel Daniel Putbrese, USAF, an Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, argues in  “Intelligence Sharing: Getting the National Counterterrorism Analysts on the Same Data Sheet” that it is imperative that national counterterrorism centers be able to access undisseminated  data before it has been analyzed, filtered, and/or packaged and that doing so requires a radical change in the […]

Russia’s Shrinking Population and the Russian Military’s HIV/AIDS Problem

Russia’s rapidly declining population will soon no longer be able to support the current size of the Russian military. The number of Russian males turning 18-years-old is forecasted to drop by about 50 percent in the next 10 to 15 years. This approaching population decline requires significant structural reform within the Russian military. Yet, Russia’s […]

China’s rise and US influence in Asia

Following the publication of his most recent book, China’s Rise in Asia: Promises and Perils, Dr. Robert Sutter embarked on a research trip in spring-summer 2006 which involved dozens of workshops to explore China’s rise and U.S. leadership in Asia. These workshops were attended by several hundred non-government specialists and elites in 21 cities of […]

Whither the European Union?

The stunning rout of the proposed EU constitution a year ago in the referenda in the Netherlands and France leads one to wonder, a year later, where Europe goes from here. One must also consider what went wrong and whether circumstances have changed, or will change, sufficiently to allow another approach to a European charter, […]

Libya and the United States: The Next Steps

Over the past several years, the Atlantic Council’s International Security Program has taken a position that, in due course, the United States’ adversarial relationships with countries, such as Libya, Iran, Syria, Cuba, and North Korea will eventually be restructured both in recognition of changes in the nature or policies of these difficult regimes, and in […]

Transatlantic Transformation: Building a NATO-EU Security Architecture

Since 1989, the security environment facing the United States and its European allies has changed beyond recognition. The Soviet Union has disintegrated, as has the division of Europe between East and West, and new threats have arisen. The disintegration of Yugoslavia in the 1990s demonstrated that instability and war emerging from failing states could affect […]

China: What could go wrong?

By Harry Harding

China has done remarkably well in its development over the last twenty-five years. It has achieved and sustained high rates of economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty. It has achieved a significant place in the international economy. It is widely regarded as a major power, not only in Asia but also increasingly on a […]

China succeeding beyond expectations

By Albert Keidel

What are the implications if China sustains nine-percent growth through 2010? This is the basic question posed by conference organizers. The relevant time frame is what matters most. If China merely maintains nine-percent growth until the year 2010, the implications are not great. Too much is left unknown about what comes after 2010. Even with […]

China as a regional player

By Edward J. Lincoln

China ought to be able to produce a relatively high economic growth rate over at least the next decade. There are a number of problems confronting the economy, but one of the great lessons of the past half-century of world economic growth is how much growth can result even when economies have considerable institutional flaws. […]

China and the World Economy Workshop

The Workshop on China and the World Economy, sponsored by the Atlantic Council of the United States and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, U.S. Department of State, convened December 7, 2005, and January 9, 2006, at the Atlantic Council. The conference was chaired by Franklin D. Kramer of the Atlantic Council. Robert A. Kapp […]

China as employer and consumer: Economic outlook for the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010)

By Arthur R. Kroeber

Economic growth in China is underpinned by very powerful structural factors that will remain in place for many years. These factors suggest that China will be able to sustain a high rate of growth in output and job creation during the period when the population of working age is at its peak (2005-2015), and that […]