The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

Principal research areas

Nuclear Strategy

Shape US nuclear strategy and implications for extended deterrence, allied assurance, and nuclear escalation.

Inform the national and/or international debate concerning potential changes in nuclear strategy and nuclear force structure.

Assess the changing requirements for extended deterrence and assurance of allies under nuclear triploarity.

Arms Control

Understand and shape the changing nature of and role for arms control in the new trilateral security environment.

Assess the relationship between US nuclear deterrence requirements and nuclear arms control to inform US negotiating positions for a potential future arms control framework.

Missile Defense

Shape the relationship between homeland missile defense and US nuclear strategy as it relates to North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China.

Anticipate and inform the national and international debate on new technologies for missile defense and its implications for strategic stability.

Emerging Threats

Assess the implications of new threats and technologies for US nuclear deterrence and strategy.

Understand and assess which threats have the greatest potential for affecting the military balance and nuclear deterrence.

Must read

Issue Brief

Dec 20, 2022

Arms racing under nuclear tripolarity: Evidence for an action-reaction cycle?

By Matthew Kroenig

Matthew Kroenig argues that there has not been a nuclear arms race since the Cold War—but that China’s nuclear buildup might start one.

Arms Control China

Commentary & quick analysis

Reports & issue briefs

Issue Brief

Dec 20, 2022

Arms racing under nuclear tripolarity: Evidence for an action-reaction cycle?

By Matthew Kroenig

Matthew Kroenig argues that there has not been a nuclear arms race since the Cold War—but that China’s nuclear buildup might start one.

Arms Control China

Issue Brief

Nov 5, 2022

Strengthening deterrence with SLCM-N

By John R. Harvey and Robert Soofer

John Harvey and Robert Soofer argue that the Sea-Launched Cruise Missile is necessary to deter Russia and China

China Defense Policy

Report

Apr 21, 2022

Climbing the ladder: How the West can manage escalation in Ukraine and beyond

By Richard D. Hooker, Jr.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and NATO’s response increase the possibility of purposeful or inadvertent escalation in Europe. Understanding how these dynamics might impact the war and further degrade transatlantic stability is critical.

Cybersecurity Defense Policy

Issue Brief

Mar 9, 2022

Defending every inch of NATO territory: Force posture options for strengthening deterrence in Europe

By The Scowcroft Center Task Force on Deterrence and Force Posture

Deterrence in Europe can be enhanced through a range of US and NATO force posture enhancements.

Conflict Defense Policy

Report

Dec 23, 2021

Proactively countering North Korea’s advancing nuclear threat

By Markus Garlauskas

Markus Garlauskas suggests a strategy to counter North Korean nuclear weapons by impeding the growth of its arsenal, investing to stay ahead of new nuclear threats, and adjusting operations on the Korean Peninsula.

Defense Policy Defense Technologies

Past events

In the news

In the News

Mar 19, 2023

Binnendijk in Global Politics and Strategy: Towards Nuclear Stewardship with China

By Hans Binnendijk

Binnendijk and Gompert argue that with the rising risk of complex crises and military escalation in the Pacific region, the United States should invite China into a process of nuclear restraint and confidence-building, called ‘nuclear stewardship.’ This process could start with a joint bilateral declaration that neither superpower would use nuclear weapons first against the other or its formal allies.

Arms Control Defense Policy

In the News

Mar 10, 2023

Kroenig on BBC World News discussing recent missile strikes on Ukraine

By Atlantic Council

Iran Nuclear Nonproliferation

In the News

Mar 7, 2023

Kroenig in the Wall Street Journal discussing strategies against nuclear-armed rivals

On March 1, Scowcroft director Matthew Kroenig penned a Wall Street Journal op-ed discussing the compounded threat that nuclear-armed rivals Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China pose to the US. Kroenig highlights recent developments in each country’s nuclear programs and concludes with a call for the US to strengthen its own strategic forces to better […]

China Iran

In the News

Feb 27, 2023

Kroenig in the Boston Globe discussing the suspension of New START

On February 21, a tweet by Scowcroft director Matthew Kroenig was quoted by Travis Anderson of the Boston Globe discussing the geopolitical implication of Putin’s suspension of New START, the only remaining nuclear arms control pact between Russia and the US. Kroenig theorizes how this may be the start of a long-term strategic arms competition […]

Arms Control Nuclear Deterrence

In the News

Feb 7, 2023

Binnedijk in Defense News on the implications of China’s spy balloons on nuclear tensions

Binnendijk in Defense News: On February 7, SCSS Distinguished Fellow Hans Binnendijk co-authored an op-ed in Defense News discussing the implications of China’s spy balloons on US-China nuclear tensions.

China Defense Policy

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Forward Defense

Forward Defense, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, shapes the debate around the greatest military challenges facing the United States and its allies, and creates forward-looking assessments of the trends, technologies, and concepts that will define the future of warfare.