GeoStrategy Initiative Analysis and Events

In Guinea, the US has a rare opportunity to gain an edge over China

By Rose Keravuori, Maureen Farrell

Guinea’s democratic transition and mineral riches put it center stage in US-China competition. The United States now has a rare chance to align investment, security, and governance to secure strategic influence in West Africa.

Global Foresight 2036

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts share findings from our survey of geostrategists on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade. Our scholars spot “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts over the next decade. And our tech experts put AI’s forecasting ability to the test.

Welcome to 2036: What the world could look like in ten years, according to nearly 450 experts

By Mary Kate Aylward, Peter Engelke, Uri Friedman, and Paul Kielstra

We polled geostrategists and foresight practitioners on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the future of NATO to the rise of cryptocurrency.

The Global Foresight 2036 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2025, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading geostrategists and foresight experts around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results. 

AI and the future

What does the next year, decade, and beyond hold for AI? We interviewed the Atlantic Council’s tech experts to learn more about AI's future, and whether it can help us better understand our own.

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in the decade ahead

By Uliana Certan, Nikita Shah, Ginger Matchett, Sarah Wallace, Dominique Ramsawak, Tatevik Khachatryan

Our scholars scan the horizon for the underappreciated phenomena that could have outsize impact on the world, driving global change and shaping the future.

The US is reengaging with Libya—and it’s the right call

By Rose Keravuori, Maureen Farrell

If the United States seeks stability in the Mediterranean and credible alternatives to Russian energy, now is the time to make coordinated security and economic investments in Libya.

It’s all about Hamas’s disarmament

By Daniel B. Shapiro

A US-brokered cease-fire ended the Israel-Hamas war, but the next phase depends on the group’s disarmament. Until that happens, Gaza’s reconstruction, regional diplomacy, and political future hang in the balance.

In Southeast Asia, the promise and pitfalls of tariff diplomacy are on full display 

By Amy Searight

US President Donald Trump’s high-profile intervention in the Thai-Cambodian border dispute delivered a cease-fire, but its violation exposes the fragility of tariff diplomacy and raises questions about the durability of coercive US diplomacy in the region.

From the DRC to Sudan, Trump’s disruptive moves could revive stalled negotiations

By Maureen Farrell

Across Africa, US President Donald Trump’s unorthodox diplomacy is unsettling old patterns—reviving talks between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda and injecting new momentum into Sudan mediation. The gains may be fragile, but the openings are real.