Europe & Eurasia

How Europe can shape—not fear—the US ‘hydrocarbon-state’

By Michał Kurtyka and Mateusz Kędzierski

The emergence of the United States as a hydrocarbon-state that combines resource abundance with geopolitical power represents an opportunity for Europe.

Putin’s next move? Five Russian attack scenarios Europe must prepare for

By Richard D. Hooker, Jr.

Whether emboldened by victory in Ukraine or motivated by a loss to pursue success elsewhere, Russian president Vladimir Putin is likely to continue his campaign of aggression. The Nordic and Baltic region, already subject to a campaign of intimidation, is in the Kremlin’s crosshairs—with these five places at greatest risk.

Despite US exemptions, the show goes on for a global minimum corporate tax

By Jeff Goldstein

The United States may have carved out protections for its multinationals, but the global minimum tax continues to move forward. With more than sixty-five countries implementing the OECD framework, policymakers are betting imperfect progress will prevent a relapse into corporate tax competition.

Dispatch from Munich: Present at the destruction or the creation?

By Frederick Kempe

This year’s Munich Security Conference presents the transatlantic Alliance with two very different paths ahead.

The Global Foresight 2036 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2025, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading geostrategists and foresight experts around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results. 

Global Foresight 2036

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts share findings from our survey of geostrategists on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade. Our scholars spot “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts over the next decade. And our tech experts put AI’s forecasting ability to the test.

Welcome to 2036: What the world could look like in ten years, according to nearly 450 experts

By Mary Kate Aylward, Peter Engelke, Uri Friedman, and Paul Kielstra

We polled geostrategists and foresight practitioners on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the future of NATO to the rise of cryptocurrency.

How 2025’s US tariff shocks can give way to constructive reforms in 2026

By L. Daniel Mullaney

While last year’s US tariff policy was disruptive, it also gave US trade partners a sense of urgency about the need to reform the international trading system and respond to legitimate US concerns.

Mining without rules: The risky US bet on the deep sea

By Elisabeth Braw

Amid efforts to acquire coveted critical minerals, in April 2025 the United States permitted deep-sea mining within international waters. Elisabeth Braw explores the implications of the Trump Administration's move for global maritime norms.

The Putin regime faces mounting pressure but is still far from collapse

By Will Dixon, Maksym Beznosiuk

Russia is facing mounting challenges on the battlefield in Ukraine and on the home front, but predictions that the Putin regime is on the brink of collapse remain premature, write Will Dixon and Maksym Beznosiuk.