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EconoGraphics

Dec 22, 2017

Parties Supporting Independence Win Slim Majority, But Catalonia’s Complex Stalemate Continues

By Michael Farquharson & Alvaro Morales Salto-Weis

The outcome of yesterday’s regional elections in Catalonia reflects the electorate’s deep polarization on the issue of regional independence.

Economy & Business Southern & Southeastern Europe

EconoGraphics

Dec 12, 2017

Catalonia: Secession Recession?

By Michael Farquharson & Alvaro Morales Salto-Weis

The region of Catalonia will hold critical elections on December 21. The stakes are high: the region unilaterally declared its independence on October 1 and subsequently saw the rule of its regional government suspended by Madrid’s central government pursuant to Article 155 of the Spanish constitution.

Economy & Business Southern & Southeastern Europe

EconoGraphics

Nov 27, 2017

Tariff on the Rising Sun

By Michael Farquharson & Ole Moehr

In April of this year, Suniva, a Chinese-owned, US-based solar manufacturer filed a rarely-used Section 201 petition with the US International Trade Commission (ITC), requesting the imposition of minimum prices for solar module imports into the United States. In May, German-based SolarWorld joined Suniva’s petition, and in September, the ITC ruled in favor of the plaintiffs, ultimately recommending up to a 35 percent tariff on imported solar modules.

Economy & Business Renewables & Advanced Energy

EconoGraphics

Nov 7, 2017

Multilateral Sanctions: Brexit Wrecks-it?

By Michael Farquharson & Ole Moehr

On October 3, 2017, the Atlantic Council hosted a conference with experts from the public and private sector to discuss the impact of Brexit on economic sanctions policymaking. The United Kingdom (UK) currently plays a considerable role crafting and implementing sanctions policy in the European Union (EU). Transatlantic cooperation and sanctions alignment are vital to ensure the effectiveness of this essential foreign policy tool.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Oct 20, 2017

The US Infrastruct-cure

By Michael Farquharson & Ole Moehr

Infrastructure investment stimulates economic growth. According to McKinsey & Company, an increase in infrastructure investment equal to 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) would convert into an additional 1.5 million direct and indirect jobs in the United States. America’s infrastructure is in a state of disrepair.

Economy & Business Europe & Eurasia

EconoGraphics

Sep 25, 2017

Crude Awakening

By Ole Moehr

On August 2, 2017, US President Donald J. Trump signed into law H.R.3364, a new set of economic sanctions aimed primarily on Russia (with additional measures adopted against Iran and North Korea). Essential to the success of any sanctions regime is its alignment.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Jul 25, 2017

The Apprentice

By Samuel Weitzman

On June 15, 2017, US President Donald J. Trump issued Executive Order 13801, which sought “to promote affordable education and rewarding jobs for American workers” by increasing the number of apprenticeship opportunities. Trump’s stated goals are ambitious. With a proposed ApprenticeshipUSA budget of $200 million (roughly double the previous amount), the president wants to increase the number of US apprenticeships from 505,000 in 2016 to 5 million by 2022.

Economy & Business United States and Canada

EconoGraphics

Jul 6, 2017

The Big Chill(ing effect)

By Samuel Weitzman

In March 2014, the United States and the European Union (EU) issued the first in a series of sanctions against the Russian Federation for its destabilization of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea. These restrictions, which initially focused on senior Russian government officials and private individuals, have expanded to include large corporations, financial institutions, and even entire economic sectors. In retaliation, Russia has adopted counter-sanctions of its own.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Jun 20, 2017

Balancing Act

By Samuel Weitzman

On June 12, in US President Donald J. Trump’s first full cabinet meeting, the new US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer briefly encapsulated the young administration’s philosophy on international trade: “Deficits do matter, and ours are coming down.” This is not a particularly partisan view; Trump’s opponent in the 2016 presidential election, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, spoke out against the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) during her campaign despite supporting it previously.

Economy & Business Trade and tariffs

EconoGraphics

Jun 9, 2017

A Vital Foreign Policy Tool

By Ole Moehr

This is the first EconoGraphic as part of our recently launched Economic Sanctions Initiative. The initiative aims to promote dialogue between the public and the private sector to investigate how to improve the design and implementation process of economic sanctions.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

Content

EconoGraphics

Aug 9, 2019

Breaking Down France’s Digital Tax

By BY ANDREW LASCALEIA, EDITED BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND AND ANDREW LASCALEIA

In July, France’s parliament ratified a new law to tax big digital tech firms making it the first country to pass a tax law of this manner. Paris’ new tax scheme triggered criticism from the Trump Administration and is further complicating the transatlantic relationship. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the motivation behind taxing digital technology firms more aggressively, the way that the French tax will work, and the potential impacts and response to the tax.

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

EconoGraphics

Jul 23, 2019

My Way or the Huawei: 5G at the Center of US-China Strategic Competition

By OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND, NICK BROWN, ANDREW LASCALEIA

On July 22, President Trump met with a group of major tech CEOs to discuss the easing of some restrictions on US companies supplying high-tech parts to Chinese telecommunications company Huawei. In May, the US Commerce Department banned US companies from selling any products to Huawei. The Chinese company’s position as the world’s leading provider of 5G technology has made it a focal point of the escalating great power competition between China and the United States. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the US government’s move to blacklist Huawei, outlines the ban’s potential costs, and describes why US allies are conflicted about banning Huawei.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Jun 3, 2019

US Cuba policy: EU and Canadian firms to suffer?

By BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY SHIQING HUA, FRANCIS AUBEE, AND NICK BROWN

On April 17 2019, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced an important change in the United States’ policy toward Cuba: Title III of the Cuban Liberty and Democracy Solidarity Act of 1996 (LIBERTAD Act) would no longer be suspended. As a result of this decision, US claimants can now seek compensation for property confiscated by the Castro government. The move has important implications for US and foreign companies doing business in Cuba. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the history and purpose of the LIBERTAD Act, evaluates the policy’s potential impact on US allies’ economic interests in Cuba, and highlights its implications for the pressure campaign against the Maduro regime in Venezuela.

Cuba Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Apr 29, 2019

Central Bank Independence Under Scrutiny

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Francis Aubee

On April 26, following stronger than expected US economic growth numbers, the White House’s National Economic Council director, Larry Kudlow, urged the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

Economy & Business Financial Regulation

EconoGraphics

Feb 6, 2019

A Breakdown of the Sanctions Deal between the United States and Oleg Deripaska

By Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Zachary Coles

On January 16, a US Senate resolution to maintain US sanctions on the Russian aluminum giant RUSAL and its holding company EN+ failed to garner the necessary 60 votes to pass. As a result, the Trump administration lifted its economic sanctions on RUSAL and EN+ on January 27.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

Blogs

Dec 21, 2018

Economic Outlook for 2019

By Global Business & Economics Program

December 2018 is set to become the worst year-end finish for US markets since 1931. A yield curve inversion combined with the fourth annual rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing geo-political uncertainty, triggered widespread angst among US investors about an economic slowdown and the increasing probability of a recession. This edition of the EconoGraphic assesses key economic indicators to make a case that while a slowing of the US economy seems certain, a recession in the next two years remains unlikely.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Dec 5, 2018

Trade Disrupted: US and China Need More Than a Truce

By Ole Moehr

At this year’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the trade dispute between China and the United States took center stage. Chinese President Xi and his US counterpart President Donald Trump agreed to avoid further escalations of the ongoing bilateral trade war for the next 90 days. The temporary deal does not assuage the escalatory measures already taken, leaving the existing tariffs in place. This edition of the EconoGraphic explores how the brewing trade conflict is impacting manufacturing supply chains, soybean cargo routes, and trade flows of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) among the United States, China, and the rest of the world.

China Economic Sanctions

EconoGraphics

Oct 30, 2018

SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran

By Ole Moehr

With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Oct 9, 2018

JCPOA in Peril – EU SPV to the Rescue?

By Ole Moehr

The European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, recently announced that the EU will set-up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) “to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran.” In response, our visiting senior fellow, Samantha Sultoon, argued that this SPV will not provide a reliable path around US sanctions, and may undermine the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions in the long-run. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains how the SPV would work in practice and outlines why this mechanism is unlikely to offer Iran enough economic upside to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) alive.

Economic Sanctions Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Sep 17, 2018

Turkish Outbreak: Risk of Emerging Market Contagion?

By Christina Gay and Ole Moehr

With the strengthening of the US dollar in the wake of continued interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve and brewing pressures in a number of emerging market (EM), portfolio flows into EM countries slowed from $13.7 billion in July to just $2.2 billion in August. Companies and banks in both Argentina and Turkey borrowed heavily in dollar denominated debt while interest rates were low and are now faced with mounting debt burdens, which, if not backed by sufficient reserves puts them at risk for default if investors lose confidence. The Turkish lira has fallen over 40 percent in 2018. Its sharp decline in August raised concern of contagion to other markets, as the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, and the Indian rupee have also come under pressure. This edition of the Econographic compares situation in Turkey with the Asian financial crisis in 1997, analyzes root causes of the current pressures in Turkey, and assesses the broader implications for EM economies.

Economy & Business European Union