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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.


editor’s picks

Latest analysis


UkraineAlert

Feb 2, 2016

Thanks But No Thanks, Mr. Inozemtsev: A Response from Kyiv

By
Olga Bielkova

What is wrong with Vladislav Inozemtsev’s recent opinion piece on how to help Ukraine? The problem with his article is not his advice itself, as flawed as it is, but the logic on which it is built. He uses the logic of imperialism, of an authoritarian state, of conspiracy theorists for whom the world is […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 1, 2016

The Future of Mykolayiv, the Future of Ukraine

By
Michael Druckman

In many ways, the problems facing the city of Mykolayiv since the October 2015 local elections are a microcosm of the challenges facing Ukraine’s national leaders. The new mayor, with a strong track record of engaging with civil society on anti-corruption efforts and a fresh face to city politics, faces huge obstacles from old faces […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 1, 2016

Putin Gets It Wrong Again: Eurasian Economic Union Hurts Russia

By
Anders Åslund

In June 2009, Vladimir Putin unexpectedly launched the idea of a customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan. Soon it was named the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). In September 2013, Armenia agreed to join, and Kyrgyzstan joined in 2015. This is a Russian initiative, dominated by Russia in all regards. Its secretariat is located in Moscow. […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Jan 27, 2016

In Ukraine, Putin Tries to Cash in Before Luck Runs Out

By
Stephen Blank

Ukraine has become the object of high-stakes diplomacy. This does not mean that fighting has stopped—quite the opposite. Russian forces continue to launch probes and violate the cease-fire agreement; they have substantially reinforced themselves, as have the Ukrainian forces arrayed against them. Nevertheless, a major diplomatic campaign is occurring. Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken […]


European Union


International Organizations


UkraineAlert

Jan 27, 2016

Making Sense of Minsk: Decentralization, Special Status, and Federalism

By
Paul Niland

Decentralization, special status, and federalism. These terms are three different things, although they are often mistakenly substituted one for another, and some people think one term means another in Ukraine today. The decentralization debate is heating up again as Ukraine faces a legal deadline to pass a constitutional amendment that gives the so-called Donetsk People’s […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Jan 26, 2016

Not So Fast, Mr. Inozemtsev

By
John E. Herbst

Responding to an article that Ambassadors Steven Pifer, William Taylor, and I wrote in The New York Times advocating greater US and EU assistance to Ukraine, Vladislav Inozemtsev wrote a provocative article January 19 in which he makes the case that Kyiv should cede the occupied territories of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), Luhansk People’s […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Jan 25, 2016

Ukrainians Need to Stop Waiting for Their White Knight

By
Sergii Leshchenko

My source leaned forward and said in a muffled voice: “The latest news is that grey cardinal Igor Kononenko’s men have been placed inside Ukrainian Railways, and Member of Parliament Sergei Fayermak of the People’s Front is now in charge of all the seaports.” This conversation with a government insider took place in the middle […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Jan 25, 2016

Ukraine’s Economic Revival Starting in the West

By
James Brooke

What do coastal China, northern Mexico, and western Ukraine have in common? After Beijing dropped Maoist economics in the 1970s, low-wage China began to thrive. The economic boom started with the coast, the area closest to the Pacific coast ports of Canada and the United States, with its access to a huge market. Low-wage northern […]


European Union


International Organizations


UkraineAlert

Jan 25, 2016

Did Ukraine’s Cyberattacks Originate in Russia?

By
Cristina Maza

As Ukraine grapples with a plethora of challenges, including endemic corruption and trade disputes with Russia, cyberattacks against the country’s critical infrastructure can now be added to the list of issues. In late December, Ukraine experienced what may have been the world’s first blackout caused by a cyberattack. While the blackout was short-lived, it affected […]


Cybersecurity


Russia


UkraineAlert

Jan 22, 2016

What Falling Oil Prices Mean for Russia and Ukraine

By
Anders Åslund

At present the price of Brent crude oil is $28 per barrel, while it was $114 per barrel in June 2014. This price fall by three-quarters is of great importance for the Russian economy and its policy toward Ukraine. The only rational option for the Kremlin is to wind down the conflict with Ukraine. Russia […]


Russia


Ukraine

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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UkraineAlert

Feb 24, 2016

What If Parliamentary Elections Were Held in Ukraine Today?

By Brian Mefford

With Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s government surviving a no-confidence vote on February 16 and the parliamentary coalition splintering the next day, early parliamentary elections are now possible this year. New elections could be triggered by three scenarios: first, if the current majority coalition in parliament collapses and a new majority isn’t formed within thirty days; […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 24, 2016

In the Absence of American Leadership, Germany Steps in to Engage with Russia—at the EU’s Peril

By Stephen Blank

One particularly visible trend at the recent Munich Security Conference was America’s disengagement from European security issues. Foreign leaders often spoke without referring to the United States, and there was little sign of US involvement beyond its military participation in NATO. Washington’s priorities clearly revolved around Syria, not Europe. This trend confirms theories about the […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 23, 2016

Parliament Votes to Weaken Ukraine’s Key Anti-Corruption Law

By Josh Cohen

Since the overthrow of former President Viktor Yanukovych, the attitude of Ukraine’s post-Maidan government toward reform could best be described as ambivalent. Last week was a case in point. While Kyiv and its Western partners remained riveted by the fate of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, parliament greatly weakened a key anti-corruption law originally enacted almost one-and-a-half […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 22, 2016

Russia’s Pernicious Hybrid War Against Ukraine

By Andreas Umland

In recent months, the relative calming of the Russian-Ukrainian war in the Donbas has led many observers to describe this confrontation as yet another “frozen conflict” in the post-Soviet space. Yet even if Russian military activities ceased completely, the analogy is misleading. It is not always understood that Ukraine’s neighbor to the east is actively […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 22, 2016

How Soft Power Works: Russian Passportization and Compatriot Policies Paved Way for Crimean Annexation and War in Donbas

By Agnia Grigas

The following is an edited excerpt from Agnia Grigas’ new book, Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire. The book examines Moscow’s policies toward Russian compatriots in former Soviet republics, including Ukraine where they laid the groundwork for Crimea’s annexation and the conflict in the Donbas. Moscow’s policies towards its “compatriots”—loosely defined as ethnic Russians, Russian […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 17, 2016

A Pyrrhic Victory for President Poroshenko

By Anders Åslund

On February 16, the Ukrainian parliament deemed the performance of its government unsatisfactory with 247 votes, but only 194 parliamentarians voted for a no-confidence measure. The government did not fall as some had expected. Overtly, this strange vote may appear a victory for President Petro Poroshenko, but it seems a Pyrrhic victory that may have […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 17, 2016

Making Sense of the Turmoil in Kyiv

By John E. Herbst

Turmoil in Kyiv continued as President Petro Poroshenko called on both Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin to resign on February 16. The President’s parliamentary faction then introduced a resolution in the Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, describing the performance of the cabinet of ministers, headed by Yatsenyuk, as inadequate. That measure passed, but […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 16, 2016

How to Reverse Putin’s Damage in Syria

By John E. Herbst

Moscow’s operation in Syria was designed to shore up the Assad regime, its long-time ally in the Middle East, from falling to various opposition forces, whose strongest elements were the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), the al-Qaeda affiliate Nusra Front, and other extremist Sunni groups. Over time this intervention has also given […]

Russia Syria

UkraineAlert

Feb 16, 2016

A Way Out of the Crisis

By Sergii Leshchenko

In the village of Glebovka, on a road leading to the old hunting grounds of ex-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, there is a small enclave of villas. Here, in the deep forest by the shores of the Kyiv water reservoir, sits a guest house that belongs to former Rada Deputy Mykola Martynenko, where confidential meetings between […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 15, 2016

Kissinger’s Vapid Vision Thing

By Alexander J. Motyl

For more evidence of how badly Russian President Vladimir Putin has damaged the international order, take a look at former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s recently articulated “vision for US-Russia relations.” It consists of large swaths of boilerplate language and several disingenuous arguments demonstrating that the architect of détente has no idea how to […]

Russia