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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.


editor’s picks

Latest analysis


UkraineAlert

May 21, 2015

Why Mariupol Will Not be the Next Frontline

By
Ruben Gzirian

Analysts and journalists have begun to ask where the Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine will go next now that the second ceasefire agreement has failed. Skirmishes on the frontline in Shyrokyne, less than ten miles from Mariupol’s city limits, have raised concerns that Mariupol will be the next target. Geographically and commercially speaking, Mariupol makes […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

May 20, 2015

Europe Needs to Help Ukraine Now

By
Anders Åslund

Ukraine bleeds, but reforms impressively, while the West ignores it. The Minsk ceasefire agreement does not hold, though the intensity of the fighting has faded. In mid-March, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) doubled Ukraine’s international reserves, but the country’s finances remain fragile. Europe’s central banks should provide a large swap credit with minimum risks to […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

May 19, 2015

The West’s Failure of Nerve

By
Stephen Blank

Poland and the Baltic states intend to ask NATO to station a battalion or even larger units on their territory. The Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—want a brigade so that each country can host a battalion or permanent rotational forces. Poland’s Foreign Minister, Grzegorz Schetyna, indicated that his government would request the permanent stationing of […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

May 19, 2015

Remembering Roman

By
Melinda Haring and Simon Hoellerbauer

Every Memorial Day, friends leave small bottles of Jack Daniel’s and an American flag on Roman Kupchinsky’s gravestone in Arlington National Cemetery. Kupchinsky was a warrior, both on and off the battlefield. A man of passion who fought for his ideals with a singular determination, he devoted his life to seeing Ukraine become free. He […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

May 14, 2015

Four Reasons to Be Hopeful About Ukraine’s Economy

By
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Ukraine’s current economic crisis was years in the making. Former President Viktor Yanukovych grossly mismanaged and looted the country. And it may take years for the country to fully recover. But there are signs that the economy has reached the lowest point and its prospects are brighter than commonly portrayed in the press.


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

May 13, 2015

Imposing Costs on Putin Will Deter War

By
John E. Herbst

“Russia and America: Stumbling to War,” a recent National Interest article by Graham Allison and Dimitri Simes, commands attention because of the gravity of the issue and the stature of its authors. Allison is a leading authority on great power relations, and Dimitri Simes is a scholar with deep connections to the elites running Russia.


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

May 13, 2015

Crimean Tatars: ‘We did not reject Russia, Russia rejected us’

By
Catherine Cosman

On May 18, 1944, Joseph Stalin deported more than 180,000 Crimean Tatars to Uzbekistan. Once again this community faces major challenges. Today, 230,000 Crimean Tatars, who are mainly Sunni Muslims, represent about 12 percent of Crimea’s population. Virtually all of Crimea’s Tatars opposed Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and refused to vote in […]


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

May 12, 2015

Russia Has Complete Information Dominance in Ukraine

By
James J. Coyle

Hackers have consistently used low-level cyber warfare tactics to advance Russian goals in Ukraine. A dedicated group of hackers successfully infected the e-mail systems of the Ukrainian military, counterintelligence, border patrol, and local police. The hackers use a spear-phishing attack in which malware is hidden in an attachment that appears to be an official Ukrainian […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

May 7, 2015

‘Russian Propaganda is Really Working,’ Warns Crimean Activist

By
Melinda Haring

Activist Urges US Government to Step Up Efforts in Crimea Russia has banned Taras Berezovets from visiting his family in Crimea. His crime: launching Free Crimea, a nongovernmental organization focused on disseminating impartial information about Crimea, in December 2014. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) considers it an extremist organization.


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Ukraine


UkraineAlert

May 7, 2015

When the Kremlin Makes An Offer You Can’t Refuse

By
Stephen Blank

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has multiple dimensions, and the energy dimension is one that has been underestimated. Russia has sought to make Ukraine dependent on its abundant energy since 2006. The reason is simple: Russia wants economic and political control over Ukraine and it wants to enmesh Ukraine’s government and elites in a web of […]


Russia


Ukraine

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UkraineAlert

Feb 25, 2015

The Flawed Minsk Peace Accord—And How to Use It

By Adrian Karatnycky

Truce Buys Ukraine Time to Get a Little Real Help From Its Friends Ukraine and its allies hope this month’s cease-fire deal agreed with Russia and Russian-backed rebels brings relative calm to southeastern Ukraine. But the Minsk agreement is deeply flawed, and there is every chance it may yet unravel, even if it holds for […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 18, 2015

Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Battle Slogs Ahead

By Olena Tregub

New Prosecutor Briefly Arrests an Oligarch; Anti-Corruption Bureau Seeks a Director The Ukrainian campaign to actually begin cleaning up Europe’s most corrupt government and economy is progressing more slowly than many Ukrainians have demanded. But the past week showed some movement in two critical government agencies: the prosecutor general’s office and the nascent National Anti-Corruption […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 18, 2015

Amid the ‘Cease-Fire,’ Russian Forces Win a Battle in Ukraine

By New Atlanticist

Kyiv Forced into New Retreat; US, Europe Must Increase Support, Atlantic Council Analysts Say At midday February 18, three-and-a-half days beyond the designated hour for a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine, fighting was continuing in the strategic city of Debaltseve, where Russian forces continue to pound a nearly surrounded Ukrainian contingent that may still number in […]

Eastern Europe Russia

UkraineAlert

Feb 13, 2015

Ukraine’s Other War: Parliament Advances Anti-Corruption Fight

By New Atlanticist

Lawmakers Vote to End Their Immunity from Prosecution Members of Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, overwhelmingly passed a bill to end their own legal immunity from prosecution, one of the main laws that for years helped Ukraine to the top of Europe’s corruption charts. Article 80 of Ukraine’s constitution protects all Rada members from prosecution […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 13, 2015

Making Ukraine’s ‘Glimmer of Hope’ Sustainable

By Sabine Freizer

If Russia Permits, the Minsk Accord Could Be a Start for Stabilizing Donbas The ceasefire agreement signed by Russia and Ukraine on in Minsk on 12 February offers what German Chancellor Angela Merkel calls “a glimmer of hope, no more no less” for constricting, and eventually ending, the war in southeast Ukraine’s Donbas region. Whether […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 13, 2015

Russia’s Ukraine War Wins it the Advantage in New Truce Deal

By John E. Herbst

‘Minsk II’ Accord Will Let Moscow Keep Pumping Arms, Fighters into Ukraine’s Donbas With thousands of Ukrainian troops nearly surrounded in Donbas by the freshly armed, Kremlin-directed rebel militias, Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko accepted the Minsk II agreement February 12. The new accord is clearly less advantageous to Kyiv than was the Minsk I agreement, which […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 10, 2015

Obama-Merkel Accord Delays Talk of Arms for Ukraine’s Defense Against Russia

By John E. Herbst

Europe Signals New Negotiation With Kremlin Will Not Include New Pressures on Kyiv The Obama-Merkel summit was critical for maintaining Transatlantic unity in the face of Moscow’s escalating aggression in Ukraine. While skeptical of the Kremlin’s intentions, German Chancellor Angela Merkel would like to try another round of diplomacy to stop the fighting. That is why […]

Europe & Eurasia Germany

UkraineAlert

Feb 10, 2015

Ukraine’s Economic Crisis is Deep; It Needs Loans Faster Than You May Think

By Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Kyiv Lacks Money for the Aggressive Reforms That Ukrainians and the West Seek The uncertainty around how much—and how soon—Ukraine might get help from international lenders is contributing to two real economic dangers facing the country: a default on its debts and a radical slashing of the budget. Ukraine’s friends—the United States and European governments—need […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 6, 2015

Amid Escalated War, U.S. Weighs Defensive Weapons for Ukraine

By New Atlanticist

France & Germany Seek to Halt the Fighting, May Use Specter of a Better-Armed Ukraine to Press Putin The Obama administration has announced no decision on whether to help Ukraine use US-made weapons to defend against Russian-sponsored attacks. But France and Germany are probing to see whether that threat might help push Russian President Vladimir […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2015

Will Moldova’s Dangerous Political Deadlock Force Out Its Prime Minister?

By New Atlanticist

Foreign Minister and Europeanist Nataliya Gherman May Become Next Leader Moldova’s political parties are deadlocked on forming a government, and the parliament has until next week (February 12) to either confirm Prime Minister Iurie Leanca in his post or find an alternative. But Leanca is sure of having only 42 of the 51 votes he […]

Moldova