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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.


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Latest analysis


UkraineAlert

Feb 11, 2019

New Political Platform in Ukraine Deserves Second Look

By
Vitalii Rybak

On February 4, a group of Ukrainian politicians and activists announced the formation of a new political platform. In Ukraine, this would hardly make news. New political platforms are announced regularly, especially during election years. But this new platform, the Euro-Atlantic Agenda for Ukraine, deserves a second look. (We previously reported that this platform was […]


NATO


Russia


UkraineAlert

Feb 11, 2019

Why the Sajdik Plan for the Donbas Will Not Work

By
Maksym Khylko

In the last year, there hasn’t been any new momentum in the effort to bring peace to Ukraine. Amid this long-lasting stalemate, the Austrian newspaper Kleine Zeitung recently published an interview with Martin Sajdik, special representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office in the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, under the ambitious title “We Have a New Plan […]


OSCE


Russia


UkraineAlert

Feb 8, 2019

Legal Threats to Minister Imperil Ukraine’s Health Care

By
Melinda Haring

Ulana Suprun just wants to get back to work turning around Ukraine’s feeble healthcare system. But she can’t focus on reforms now: the fifty-six-year-old radiologist turned health minister of Ukraine is under attack. Worst of all, she’s not sure who is behind it. On February 5, Kyiv’s Regional Administrative Court ruled to suspend Suprun’s authority […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 7, 2019

Is the Kremlin Really Afraid of a Farmer?

By
Vitalii Rybak

Birthdays are typically lavish affairs in Ukraine. But not for Volodymyr Balukh, who will spend his third birthday in prison for the simple act of displaying a Ukrainian flag in Crimea. On February 8, the Ukrainian farmer turns 48. His case shows how Moscow harshly punishes Ukrainians in Crimea who have the temerity to protest […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 6, 2019

Q&A: Why Are Ukraine’s Last Reformers Being Kicked Out?

By
Melinda Haring

Less than two months before Ukraine’s presidential election, two independent-minded officials are being forced out. On February 5, Kyiv’s Regional Administrative Court ruled to suspend Detroit born physician Ulana Suprun’s authority to make any decisions or sign any documents as the acting minister of health. The court pointed to a regulation that limits an acting […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2019

Rating Ukraine’s Presidential Candidates

By
Alexander J. Motyl and Dennis Soltys

Three candidates have the most plausible chance of winning the first round in Ukraine’s March 31st presidential election: President Petro Poroshenko; former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko; and Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a politically untested comedian whose popular television show, Servant of the People, portrays him as an intrepid corruption fighter. Zelenskiy’s popularity can be explained as a […]


Russia


Ukraine


This is the picture

UkraineAlert

Feb 1, 2019

Two Big Problems with Ukraine’s Elections that No One Else Has Spotted

By
Mykola Vorobiov

There are many reasons to worry about Ukraine’s elections this year. The 2019 elections may be as defining as those in 2014, when Ukraine left the Russian world for good. However, so far, most analysts have missed two factors that may play an outsized role. First, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov is not only a sitting […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 1, 2019

Russia looks to strike at Ukraine’s south again?

By
Andreas Umland

An escalation at the Azov Sea will threaten social stability in southeastern Ukraine.


Conflict


Maritime Security


UkraineAlert

Feb 1, 2019

Poroshenko Runs on Stay the Course Platform

By
Ruslan Minich and Vitalii Rybak

Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko finally announced that he will seek reelection at a packed forum on January 29 in Kyiv. Held on the anniversary of the battle of Kruty when students and Cossacks died defending Kyiv from Bolshevik forces in 1918, organizers were hoping to stress the symbolism: Ukraine started to move away from Russia […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Jan 31, 2019

The Right Person at the Right Time

By
Carl Gershman

Editor’s note: Nadia Diuk died on January 23, 2019. She worked at the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) for thirty-two years. Carl Gershman, president of the NED, delivered this eulogy at the Ukrainian Catholic National Shrine of the Holy Family in Washington on January 31, 2019  In the days since Nadia passed, the National Endowment […]


Ukraine

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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UkraineAlert

Feb 16, 2016

A Way Out of the Crisis

By Sergii Leshchenko

In the village of Glebovka, on a road leading to the old hunting grounds of ex-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, there is a small enclave of villas. Here, in the deep forest by the shores of the Kyiv water reservoir, sits a guest house that belongs to former Rada Deputy Mykola Martynenko, where confidential meetings between […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 15, 2016

Kissinger’s Vapid Vision Thing

By Alexander J. Motyl

For more evidence of how badly Russian President Vladimir Putin has damaged the international order, take a look at former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s recently articulated “vision for US-Russia relations.” It consists of large swaths of boilerplate language and several disingenuous arguments demonstrating that the architect of détente has no idea how to […]

Russia

UkraineAlert

Feb 15, 2016

Who Should Pay for the Restoration of the Donbas?

By Anders Åslund

It appears a real possibility that the Donbas will be reunified with the rest of Ukraine this year: its occupation simply costs the Kremlin too much. Its Novorossiya project has failed, and the Donbas on its own has no appeal to the Russian people. And Russia cannot get rid of the current suffocating financial sanctions […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 10, 2016

Where is Ukraine’s Government Headed Now? Four Possible Scenarios

By Tim Ash

Ukraine’s ongoing political crisis offers observers an opportunity to analyze the current state of affairs and determine likely scenarios for the country’s political future in the near term. First, the recent resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius from the position of Minister of Economic Development and Trade did not appear to be coordinated with either the reform […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Ukraine’s Got a Real Army Now. But Is It Preparing to Fight the Last Battle?

By Ruben Gzirian

The prolonged stalemate of Minsk II has provided the Ukrainian military ample opportunity to address a series of longstanding challenges stretching back to the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych. While it is clear that the Ukrainian military has improved since its disastrous defeat at Debaltseve in February 2015, evaluating the real effect of ongoing reforms is […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Dutch Likely to Hand Putin a Major Symbolic Victory in Referendum on EU-Ukraine Association Agreement

By Andreas Umland

There is something odd about the upcoming Dutch plebiscite on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. On April 6, the Netherlands will hold a national referendum on a treaty between Brussels and Kyiv that was signed in 2014 and ratified in 2015. Yet, the European Union and the European Community have, during the last sixty years, concluded […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Actually, No. Russia and Ukraine Are Not Equally Delinquent When It Comes to Fulfilling Minsk

By Paul Niland

One of the most startling examples of the adage “there are two sides to every story” is the difference in perceptions over the implementation of the Minsk Agreements between Ukraine and Russia. Minsk, if handled in good faith, could be the roadmap to deescalate the war in Ukraine and bring peace to the region. In […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 8, 2016

What’s Behind the Resignation of Minister Abromavicius?

By Basil A. Kalymon and Oleh Havrylyshyn

The resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius from the position of Minister of Economic Development and Trade is another nail in the coffin for the hopes for serious reform in Ukraine. In resigning, he follows in the footsteps of his predecessor Pavlo Sheremeta, who was also unwilling to serve in a government that was more interested in […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 5, 2016

Putin Corners Himself in Ukraine. We Would Be Crazy to Placate Him Now

By Diane Francis

The recent backroom bilateral talks between the United States and Russia about Ukraine have caused anxiety in the region, raised hopes that sanctions could be lifted, and elevated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s status to super power level. All are counterproductive. Since the bilateral talks and optimistic statements by US Secretary of State John Kerry about […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2016

Why Do Ukraine’s Reform Ministers Keep Quitting?

By Anders Åslund

On February 3, Ukraine’s Minister of Economic Development and Trade Aivaras Abromavicius announced his resignation at a press briefing with a big bang that may unleash a political crisis and shake the country’s fragile finances. Abromavicius, a 40-year-old investment banker of Lithuanian origin who has lived in Kyiv for many years as a fund manager, […]

Ukraine