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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.


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UkraineAlert

Nov 6, 2014

Ukraine’s Need for Fast Reform Means Government Has No Time for Infighting

By
Sabine Freizer

Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk Must Cut Short Their Recent Signs of Rivalry As Ukraine’s new leading political parties renew their talks today, they can waste no time in forming the government that now must grapple with a financial emergency, economic crisis, and war in the east. They must avoid acrimony or drawn-out negotiations, yet some signs […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Nov 3, 2014

Ukraine’s New Government: Here’s What to Expect

By
New Atlanticist

Amid Horse-Trading by Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk, a New Parliament Speaker Is Likely The Atlantic Council’s Kyiv-based senior fellow, Brian Mefford, writes on the likely makeup of Ukraine’s post-election government. His key observations are below, and you can read his detailed analysis on his own blog.


Elections


Politics & Diplomacy


UkraineAlert

Nov 3, 2014

Russian-Ukraine Gas Deal Gives Moscow the Leverage and Europe the Energy

By
John E. Herbst

Ukrainians Will Get Gas, Too, But Their Cost and Risk of Cutoffs Remain High European Union leaders in Brussels may be celebrating the gas deal signed Thursday between Ukraine and Russia as an assurance of Russian gas supplies to Europe this winter, but Ukrainians can at best take cold comfort from the agreement. EU Energy […]


Eastern Europe


Energy & Environment


UkraineAlert

Oct 31, 2014

Ukraine Gas Deal May Show That the West’s Sanctions on Russia Are Working

By
James Rupert

The gas supply deal signed in Brussels yesterday among Russia, Ukraine and the European Union “is perhaps the clearest indication yet that sanctions imposed on Russia are working in terms of changing Russia’s behavior,” writes Timothy Ash, an economist who directs emerging markets strategy at Standard Bank in London.


Eastern Europe


Energy & Environment


UkraineAlert

Oct 30, 2014

Russian-Backed ‘People’s Republics’ in Ukraine Prepare Elections for Sunday

By
James Rupert

Donetsk, Lugansk Vote for ‘Parliaments’ Violates Truce and Raises Risks, Say Analysts The Russian-backed, miniature, “people’s republics” declared in southeastern Ukraine are preparing to elect parliaments and heads of state on Sunday, a step backed by Moscow to consolidate their self-declared statehood. Those elections promise to further undermine the already wobbly political deal that underpins […]


Russia


Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Oct 27, 2014

Today’s Corruption Video: Which Ukrainian Officials Own These Palaces?

By
New Atlanticist

The former director and deputy director of Ukraine’s state-owned gas company, Naftogaz, will have been waiting today to hear if they are elected to Ukraine’s parliament, not least because winning seats would offer them immunity from prosecution. Prosecution for what?


Elections


Politics & Diplomacy


UkraineAlert

Oct 27, 2014

Ukraine Counts Its Votes: Here Is What They Mean

By
New Atlanticist

Official Tallies Are Tracking With Polls Predicting a Strong, Pro-Europe and Reformist Coalition With 71 percent of Ukraine’s ballots counted today, the official results are broadly tracking the recent days’ polls, suggesting that Ukraine’s next government will be a pro-European coalition built across several political parties, with President Petro Poroshenko likely to rely on his […]


Eastern Europe


Elections


UkraineAlert

Oct 27, 2014

Ukrainians Vote for a European Future and for Reform

By
John E. Herbst

Parliament Election is a Defeat for Russia’s Putin: How Will He Respond? If Sunday’s exit poll accurately depicts Ukraine’s parliamentary vote, the outcome is a stunning victory for reform and a pro-European orientation—and a big defeat for Russian President Vladimir Putin. It immediately raises the question whether Putin will respond with a new aggressive move […]


Eastern Europe


Elections


UkraineAlert

Oct 24, 2014

George Soros on Ukraine: Europe Is Sleeping Through Its Decisive Fight

By
New Atlanticist

Billionaire investment magnate and pro-democracy philanthropist George Soros has sounded what he says is a wake-up call to Europe (and to the United States) over a failure to see that it is “facing a challenge from Russia to its very existence.” You can read here his full 3,200-word essay for the New York Review of […]


European Union


International Organizations


UkraineAlert

Oct 24, 2014

A Night in War-Shattered Lugansk: Russian Soldiers Share Vodka with Western Journalists

By
James Rupert

‘You Didn’t See Us Here,’ Officer Admonishes, as Moscow Keeps Military Options in Ukraine As Ukrainians elect a parliament this weekend, new evidence pops up of Russia’s military role in their country: Western journalists this week found destroyed Russian tanks in Donetsk—and very live (if somewhat drunk) Russian soldiers happy to socialize at one of […]


Russia


Ukraine

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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UkraineAlert

Apr 7, 2015

Will Sanctions on Russia, Weapons for Ukrainians Keep Putin at Bay?

By Ashish Kumar Sen

Former Putin advisor says they will not, advocates stronger response Western sanctions on Russia are not working and a proposal to provide defensive weapons to Ukrainian security forces will not deter the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, according to Andrei Illarionov, a former advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “For those few people who are there […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Apr 7, 2015

Putin’s Chilling Message to the West

By Ariel Cohen

Vladimir Putin’s 10-day disappearance shortly after the murder of opposition politician Boris Nemtsov and his triumphal reappearance after the broadcast of a 150-minute documentary on state television, suggest a more erratic—and aggressive—policy course in Russia. Here’s why. After Putin’s disappearance on March 5, the Russian media and the blogosphere dealt with little else.  However, the […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Apr 2, 2015

The IMF’s Very Tough Love for Ukraine

By Yuriy Gorodnichenko

As Kyiv Slashes Spending, the Economy’s Real Shrinkage This Year May Be 10, Not 6, Percent The International Monetary Fund last month threw what looks like a much-improved financial lifeline to Ukraine—and indeed, the new loan program is welcome help for a desperate need. But a check on the math of one prominent IMF realist […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 31, 2015

In Ukraine, the Real Fight is for Europe

By Stephen Blank

Putin’s War is Not Over Donbas, but a New Russian Empire According to Vladimir Putin, Crimea and Ukraine are where the spiritual sources of Russia’s nationhood lie. And he “always saw the Russians and Ukrainians as a single people. I still think this way now.” People observing the crisis triggered by Putin’s aggression against Ukraine […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 31, 2015

Russia Plans Spring Offensive in Ukraine, Warns Ex-NATO Chief Wesley Clark

By Ashish Kumar Sen

Russian-backed separatists are planning a fresh offensive in eastern Ukraine that could come within a matter of months, retired Gen. Wesley Clark, a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, warned March 30. “What is happening now is preparations for a renewed offensive from the east,” and this could take place following Orthodox Easter, on April 12, […]

NATO Russia

UkraineAlert

Mar 26, 2015

Less-Stringent Minsk II Terms Paved the Way for Renewed Sanctions

By John E. Herbst

On March 19, delegates at the European Union Summit in Brussels agreed to extend tough sanctions against Moscow—until year’s end if necessary—to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to implement the Minsk II ceasefire. Under terms of that deal, signed on February 12, EU sanctions won’t be lifted until Ukraine takes back full control of its […]

European Union Germany

UkraineAlert

Mar 26, 2015

Putin’s War Has Consolidated Ukraine

By Alexander Motyl

Viewed historically, the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war is the product of four deeper causes and one trigger. First, the Soviet empire’s collapse in 1991 propelled its successor state, Russia, to seek reimperialization for structural and ideological reasons. Second, the emergence of a “fascistoid” (or almost fully fascist) regime made imperial revival a central feature of Vladimir […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 26, 2015

Ukraine’s Powerful Billionaire Governor Quits After Clash With Kyiv

By New Atlanticist

Dnipropetrovsk’s Kolomoyskyi: Patriotic, Corrupt, Threatening—Or All Three? Ukrainian billionaire politician Ihor Kolomoyskyi resigned today as governor of Ukraine’s strategically critical Dnipropetrovsk province after clashing with the central government and parliament over control of two state-owned oil-sector companies. In that clash, Kolomoyskyi last week sent troops of an armed militia he controls to occupy the Kyiv […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 18, 2015

EU Will Kick the Can Down the Road on Russia Sanctions

By Ashish Kumar Sen

Europeans do not want to undermine Minsk II, says analyst European Union leaders meeting in Brussels on March 19 are unlikely to either ramp up or lift sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine, says Edward W. Walker, a professor of political science at the University of California at Berkeley. “It’s very likely that […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Mar 18, 2015

Sanctions Are Still the Answer

By John E. Herbst

Last week, UkraineAlert linked to an interesting piece by Clifford Gaddy criticizing the West’s sanctions on Russia for its aggression in Ukraine. His point is this: Putin believes that Russia is “under assault” by the West and cannot allow Ukraine “to be brought fully into the sphere of influence of its enemy.” Therefore, the West […]

Russia Ukraine