In-depth research and reports

The competition for influence in the Americas is now online

By Celina Realuyo

China is expanding its footprint in Latin America and the Caribbeans’s emerging technology and critical infrastructure arenas, while Russia is engaging in foreign influence operations via the cyber domain. These challenges require a proactive stance by the United States.

Future-proofing the Cyber Safety Review Board

By Maia Hamin, Trey Herr, Stewart Scott, Alphaeus Hanson

The Cyber Safety Review Board seeks to examine and learn from complex failures in cyberspace. As Congress considers how to design its next iteration, there are ways to make it more effective and adaptable for the increasing challenges to come.

China Pathfinder update: Lack of policy solutions in second half of 2023 belies official data

By GeoEconomics Center and Rhodium Group

Through the second half of 2023, the gap between China’s impressive official data and visibly underwhelming consumer demand, unresolved local government debt problems and an unprecedented drop in foreign direct investment was stark.

Requirements for nuclear deterrence and arms control in a two-nuclear-peer environment

By Greg Weaver and Amy Woolf

Gregory Weaver and Amy Woolf discuss the future of US nuclear posture and arms control, as the United States will soon face two adversaries with peer nuclear arsenals.

Russia Tomorrow: Five scenarios for Russia’s future

By Casey Michel

A new Atlantic Council report explores five paths that Russia future might take in its future. What forces will shape Russia’s future?

Decarbonizing the aluminum market: Challenges and opportunities

By Nitya Aggarwal, Matthew Piotrowski, and George Frampton

This report explores the pathways to decarbonize aluminum production through the increased use of recycled scrap metal, supplying more low-carbon energy to production facilities, and increasing efficiency through new technologies.

A US-South Korea alliance strategic memo on deterrence

By Markus Garlauskas, Lauren D. Gilbert

With North Korea’s rapidly advancing military technology, aggressive nuclear policy changes, and deepening ties with the PRC making deterrence on the Korean Peninsula increasingly more complex, this is how the US and South Korea can shore up cooperative deterrence and boost alliance resilience.

A US-South Korea alliance strategic memo on reassurance and coordination for a China conflict

By Markus Garlauskas, Lauren D. Gilbert

Washington and Seoul have drawn closer together in recent years, but concerns remain about what role the alliance would play in a US-China military conflict. The US and South Korea should take these steps to address this sensitive question.

A US-South Korea alliance strategic memo on countering Beijing’s economic coercion

By Kyoko Imai, Markus Garlauskas

Economic interdependence of South Korea, United States, and other Indo-Pacific countries with China is enabling Beijing to pose threats to national security through economic coercion. To reduce these risks, Seoul and Washington should align strategies in advanced technologies, secure supply chains through trilateral cooperation with Japan, and reinforce the rules-based system in the Indo-Pacific.

How Europe can escape its structural energy weakness amid great power competition

By Ben Judah, Tim Sahay, Shahin Vallée, and Francis Shin

This report argues that the EU will need to engage in deep structural and political reforms to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.

The top risks and opportunities for 2024

By Peter Engelke, Paul Saffo

2023 was marked by war in the Middle East and in Europe. What else looms on the horizon? The Atlantic Council’s top experts brought their globe-spanning expertise to the task of forecasting the near future.

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2024

Atlantic Council foresight experts spot the underappreciated phenomena that could have outsize impact on the world, driving global change and shaping the future.

Global Foresight 2024

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts identify the top risks and opportunities for 2024. Our foresight team spots “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts in 2024 and beyond. And we share findings from our survey of global strategists and foresight practitioners on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade.

Design questions in the software liability debate

By Maia Hamin, Sara Ann Brackett, and Trey Herr, with Andy Kotz

Software liability—resurgent in the policy debate since its mention in the 2023 US National Cybersecurity Strategy—describes varied potential structures to create legal accountability for vendors of insecure software. This report identifies key design questions for such regimes and tracks their discussion through the decades-long history of the debate.

Atlantic Council Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption: Final report

By Whitney M. McNamara, Peter Modigliani, Matthew MacGregor, and Eric Lofgren*

The DoD must accelerate defense innovation adoption from the leading edge of the private sector. This report has ten recommendations to do so and features eight vignettes that explore how these actions may play out in practice.

Developing an agenda for international financial institutions and central bank digital currency

By Greg Brownstein and Utsav Saksena

Is the emerging architecture appropriate, effective, and sufficient to manage the global transition to digital money? This report focuses on three domains: financial stability, development and financial inclusion, and global payment systems.

Governance reform of the Bretton Woods Institutions

By Sienna Nordquist and Joel Christoph

The paper emphasizes the need for a governance reform roadmap at the IMF and World Bank focusing on quota reallocation, diplomatic efforts, and a commitment to diversity and democratic principles.

Navigating subsidy reform at the WTO

By Sona Muzikarova and Sophia Busch

The legitimacy of the World Trade Organization is in question. The United States and its allies, and leaders in the organization, can better wield its potential to address global issues, specifically to reduce inefficiencies from fragmentation caused by subsidies.

Welcome to 2034: What the world could look like in ten years, according to nearly 300 experts  

To survey the future, we polled global strategists and foresight practitioners on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the likelihood of war over Taiwan to the future of AI.

The Global Foresight 2024 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results.