Transatlantic climate and energy security

This issue brief explores the potential for Caspian region fossil fuel developments to meet Europe’s energy needs, considering regional factors and challenges.

To better understand how the war’s conclusion—or lack thereof—will impact the options available to transatlantic policymakers, this report analyzes European security across five general scenarios—a Ukrainian victory, a negotiated settlement, a frozen conflict, a protracted conflict, and a Russian victory.

Rebuilding the Ukrainian economy after Russia’s full-scale invasion will be a monumental task. Reconstruction can’t wait for peace and must be a well-coordinated, inclusive process.

Despite recent discussions between Moscow and Washington over restarting the Nord Stream pipelines, legal, financial, and political hurdles make reopening them improbable. Multimillion dollar claims against Gazprom along with US stakes in the European LNG market are likely to severely limit support for Russian gas flows to the EU.

Central Asia holds vast critical mineral resources, but limited export capacity and complex environmental, geopolitical, and legal risks make large-scale US investment unfeasible. The US should instead focus its efforts on allied nations with established mineral export industries.

Washington’s potential reset with Moscow, amid Ukraine peace negotiations, has revived discussions on the future of Nord Stream 2. Whether the Trump administration would cede its LNG market in Europe to Russian pipeline exports remains to be seen. For Europe, however, reopening the pipeline would be a costly mistake.

As the Trump administration outlines its energy priorities, strengthening the US nuclear industry remains a point of bipartisan agreement. Revitalizing this sector will lead not only to domestic economic growth, but also a reduction in Russia’s dominance in global nuclear markets and its geopolitical leverage.

Everything you need to know about the reported Trump-Zelenskyy economic pact on Ukraine’s natural resources.

Three years of Russia’s senseless aggression in Ukraine have caused monumental, unnecessary human suffering but also an irreversible impact on Russia’s energy sector. Sanctioning Russian LNG at the source is the most effective way to prevent future supply blackmail from Moscow.