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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.


editor’s picks

Latest analysis


UkraineAlert

Feb 16, 2016

A Way Out of the Crisis

By
Sergii Leshchenko

In the village of Glebovka, on a road leading to the old hunting grounds of ex-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, there is a small enclave of villas. Here, in the deep forest by the shores of the Kyiv water reservoir, sits a guest house that belongs to former Rada Deputy Mykola Martynenko, where confidential meetings between […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 15, 2016

Kissinger’s Vapid Vision Thing

By
Alexander J. Motyl

For more evidence of how badly Russian President Vladimir Putin has damaged the international order, take a look at former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s recently articulated “vision for US-Russia relations.” It consists of large swaths of boilerplate language and several disingenuous arguments demonstrating that the architect of détente has no idea how to […]


Russia


UkraineAlert

Feb 15, 2016

Who Should Pay for the Restoration of the Donbas?

By
Anders Åslund

It appears a real possibility that the Donbas will be reunified with the rest of Ukraine this year: its occupation simply costs the Kremlin too much. Its Novorossiya project has failed, and the Donbas on its own has no appeal to the Russian people. And Russia cannot get rid of the current suffocating financial sanctions […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 10, 2016

Where is Ukraine’s Government Headed Now? Four Possible Scenarios

By
Tim Ash

Ukraine’s ongoing political crisis offers observers an opportunity to analyze the current state of affairs and determine likely scenarios for the country’s political future in the near term. First, the recent resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius from the position of Minister of Economic Development and Trade did not appear to be coordinated with either the reform […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Ukraine’s Got a Real Army Now. But Is It Preparing to Fight the Last Battle?

By
Ruben Gzirian

The prolonged stalemate of Minsk II has provided the Ukrainian military ample opportunity to address a series of longstanding challenges stretching back to the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych. While it is clear that the Ukrainian military has improved since its disastrous defeat at Debaltseve in February 2015, evaluating the real effect of ongoing reforms is […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Dutch Likely to Hand Putin a Major Symbolic Victory in Referendum on EU-Ukraine Association Agreement

By
Andreas Umland

There is something odd about the upcoming Dutch plebiscite on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. On April 6, the Netherlands will hold a national referendum on a treaty between Brussels and Kyiv that was signed in 2014 and ratified in 2015. Yet, the European Union and the European Community have, during the last sixty years, concluded […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Actually, No. Russia and Ukraine Are Not Equally Delinquent When It Comes to Fulfilling Minsk

By
Paul Niland

One of the most startling examples of the adage “there are two sides to every story” is the difference in perceptions over the implementation of the Minsk Agreements between Ukraine and Russia. Minsk, if handled in good faith, could be the roadmap to deescalate the war in Ukraine and bring peace to the region. In […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 8, 2016

What’s Behind the Resignation of Minister Abromavicius?

By
Basil A. Kalymon and Oleh Havrylyshyn

The resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius from the position of Minister of Economic Development and Trade is another nail in the coffin for the hopes for serious reform in Ukraine. In resigning, he follows in the footsteps of his predecessor Pavlo Sheremeta, who was also unwilling to serve in a government that was more interested in […]


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 5, 2016

Putin Corners Himself in Ukraine. We Would Be Crazy to Placate Him Now

By
Diane Francis

The recent backroom bilateral talks between the United States and Russia about Ukraine have caused anxiety in the region, raised hopes that sanctions could be lifted, and elevated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s status to super power level. All are counterproductive. Since the bilateral talks and optimistic statements by US Secretary of State John Kerry about […]


Russia


Ukraine


UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2016

Why Do Ukraine’s Reform Ministers Keep Quitting?

By
Anders Åslund

On February 3, Ukraine’s Minister of Economic Development and Trade Aivaras Abromavicius announced his resignation at a press briefing with a big bang that may unleash a political crisis and shake the country’s fragile finances. Abromavicius, a 40-year-old investment banker of Lithuanian origin who has lived in Kyiv for many years as a fund manager, […]


Ukraine

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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UkraineAlert

Sep 29, 2016

The Lessons of Babyn Yar: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow

By Kateryna Smagliy

“No gravestone stands on Babyn Yar,” wrote the Soviet poet Yevgeniy Yevtushenko in 1961. He was condemning the Soviet regime’s failure to acknowledge the Babyn Yar tragedy twenty-five years after World War II had ended. When a monument was finally erected in 1974 to commemorate the deaths of 100,000 people generically characterized as “Soviet citizens,” […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 28, 2016

Putin’s Balkan Insecurities

By Stephen Blank

Two and a half years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, too many public figures in the United States and Europe still seem unable to decipher Russia’s motives. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently told a Bosnian newspaper that NATO’s readiness to extend membership to Montenegro and welcome Bosnia and Macedonia was not only a […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 26, 2016

The Audacity of Nadiya Savchenko

By Melinda Haring

“Russian propaganda made the mistake of using me as an example, and I just became too expensive for them. I am a person who never gives up,” said Nadiya Savchenko, a former prisoner of war, current member of Ukraine’s parliament, and one of the country’s most popular politicians, on September 22. Three days earlier, the […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 26, 2016

Can Vladimir Putin Make the Twenty-First Century a Russian Century?

By Anders Åslund

The role Russia is playing in Donald Trump’s election campaign is quite extraordinary. The candidate’s son has acknowledged that Trump’s companies have received large Russian investments. His former campaign manager Paul Manafort worked for Ukraine’s disgraced pro-Moscow authoritarian president for almost a decade. Two of his foreign policy advisers, Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn and Carter […]

European Union International Organizations

UkraineAlert

Sep 23, 2016

How Ukraine Can Signal It’s Serious about Reform

By Oksana Bedratenko

Thirteen months since the last tranche, the IMF has finally allocated the third tranche of its program to Ukraine, bringing the total disbursement to $7.6 billion. Although it is less than the originally planned $1.7 billion and came with substantial delays, the receipt of the $1 billion tranche was celebrated by the Ukrainian government as […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 21, 2016

Crimean Residents Vote in Russian Elections, Reluctantly

By Eleanor Knott

For the first time since Russia annexed Crimea, Russian elections were held on the territory of the disputed peninsula. That elections were held in Crimea has been a source of contention between Russia and the international community. OSCE election observers refused to monitor the polls in Crimea, and the US and EU condemned the September […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 21, 2016

Meet Maxim Nefyodov: How Ukrainian Geeks Tackled Corruption in Public Procurement

By Anastasiya Ringis

One day in September 2013, when Maxim Nefyodov, a managing partner at the investment firm Icon Private Equity, was leaving his office on Rylskiy Lane, he witnessed a funny scene. Accompanied by eight bodyguards, President Viktor Yanukovych’s odious ally, Yuriy Ivanyushchenko, was walking from an office building to his luxury SUV. To Nefyodov this spectacle […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 21, 2016

Does Putin Have 35 Million Secret Weapons?

By Lukas Trakimavičius

“Russia is back.” These were the recent words of General Curtis Scaparrotti, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe—and he was correct. Thanks to a rapidly growing arms budget and a worrisome frequency of snap military drills near NATO’s borders, Russia is indeed back to the game of power politics after a twenty-five year hiatus. The implications […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 19, 2016

Putin’s Illusions about Crimea

By Olesya Yakhno

In the recent plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum [on September 3 in Vladivostok], Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the issue of Crimea’s ownership is historically closed. Despite the adamant tone, such statements do not show Russia’s confidence but instead reveal the Kremlin’s vulnerability on this issue. The concept Krym nash (Crimea is […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Sep 19, 2016

Memo to the West: Reject Russia’s Illegal Duma Elections

By Hanna Hopko

On September 18, Russians went to the polls to elect 450 members of parliament. The big news is that Vladimir Putin’s United Russia performed surprisingly well, taking approximately 54 percent of the vote. But the underreported news is this: Russians elected four MPs from occupied Ukrainian Crimea, which is illegal and grossly violates international law. […]

Russia Ukraine