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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.


editor’s picks

Latest analysis


UkraineAlert

Oct 5, 2015

Testing Putin’s Intentions

By
John E. Herbst

The October 2 Paris Summit with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President François Hollande, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, and Russian President Vladimir Putin produced no breakthrough for peace in Ukraine. But it provided additional proof that, for the moment, Putin wants to lower tensions in the region. The parties spoke about three issues: the withdrawal […]


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UkraineAlert

Oct 5, 2015

How to Fight Corruption in Ukraine

By
Anders Åslund

We all agree: The greatest threat facing Ukraine, after its war with Russia, is corruption. But few agree how to do so, though it should not be that difficult. In 1998, Ukraine’s main gas importer, Ihor Bakai, stated that “all rich people in Ukraine made their money on Russian gas.” The technique was simple. A […]


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UkraineAlert

Sep 30, 2015

Radars for Ukraine: Obama’s Strong Signal to Putin

By
Adrian Karatnycky

A day after US President Barack Obama met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the United States announced that it will ship long-range counter-battery radars to Ukraine. Obama authorized $20 million to provide the country with radars, bringing US security assistance to Ukraine up to $265 million. Obama’s message is clear: the United States will not […]


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UkraineAlert

Sep 29, 2015

Ukraine Must Embrace Radical Reform Now

By
Melinda Haring

If the Ukrainian government does not follow through with an ambitious reform agenda, public support will wane while dissatisfaction will increase, threatening political stability and the country’s future. “There is no time for slow evolutionary changes. Radical and revolutionary reforms are the only way to success,” warns a new report issued September 28.


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UkraineAlert

Sep 29, 2015

Halfway There on National Unity in Ukraine

By
Colin Cleary

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has lost the battle for the hearts and minds of the predominantly Russian-speaking regions of eastern and southern Ukraine that remain under Kyiv’s control. Support for those he calls “compatriots” has been at the core of Putin’s stated rationale for intervention in Ukraine. Polls show, however, that a clear majority of […]


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UkraineAlert

Sep 29, 2015

Will Assad Rescue Putin from the Ukrainian Quagmire?

By
Aaron Korewa

For fifteen years, Gleb Pavlovsky worked as an adviser to Russian Presidents Boris Yeltsin, Vladimir Putin, and the one-term Dmitry Medvedev. He was one of the chief architects behind the “power vertical” concept— the need for a strong leader in order to create stability. Freedom and democracy were supposed to “come later.” Unfortunately for Pavlovsky, […]


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UkraineAlert

Sep 29, 2015

Ukraine’s Leaders Must Engage Disillusioned Citizens Now

By
Joanna Rohozinska

In many respects, Ukraine is unrecognizable from the place it was a mere two years ago. Civic engagement has clearly increased, as seen by the remarkable mobilization of volunteers, flourishing of local civic groups, and generous donations for a variety of causes. A sense of vitality and energy pervades the country—unlike a few years ago, […]


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UkraineAlert

Sep 28, 2015

A Gift to Putin

By
John E. Herbst

An odd thing happened on President Barack Obama’s way to New York for meetings at the UN with world leaders. He forgot to schedule a session with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. Of course, New York City is flooded with world leaders at this time of year, and Obama does not have time to meet with […]


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UkraineAlert

Sep 25, 2015

Is Syria Putin’s Off-Ramp from the Ukraine Crisis?

By
John E. Herbst

Ever since Moscow’s “little green men” appeared in Crimea, the West has been anxious to provide Russian President Vladimir Putin an “off-ramp” from his aggression in Ukraine. US, French, German, and European Union diplomats have made numerous efforts to find a face-saving way for Putin to back off. For the longest time, however, it seemed […]


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UkraineAlert

Sep 25, 2015

Europe’s Next Wave of Migrants May Come From Ukraine

By
Diane Francis

In chess, a player is in “zugzwang” when no move will rescue his situation. Russian President Vladimir Putin has put Ukraine in “zugzwang” and, as things now stand, the country is unable to move forward militarily, economically or diplomatically. Without relief, Europe may end up with another deluge of asylum seekers, this time from Ukraine. […]


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UkraineAlert

Feb 16, 2016

A Way Out of the Crisis

By Sergii Leshchenko

In the village of Glebovka, on a road leading to the old hunting grounds of ex-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, there is a small enclave of villas. Here, in the deep forest by the shores of the Kyiv water reservoir, sits a guest house that belongs to former Rada Deputy Mykola Martynenko, where confidential meetings between […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 15, 2016

Kissinger’s Vapid Vision Thing

By Alexander J. Motyl

For more evidence of how badly Russian President Vladimir Putin has damaged the international order, take a look at former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s recently articulated “vision for US-Russia relations.” It consists of large swaths of boilerplate language and several disingenuous arguments demonstrating that the architect of détente has no idea how to […]

Russia

UkraineAlert

Feb 15, 2016

Who Should Pay for the Restoration of the Donbas?

By Anders Åslund

It appears a real possibility that the Donbas will be reunified with the rest of Ukraine this year: its occupation simply costs the Kremlin too much. Its Novorossiya project has failed, and the Donbas on its own has no appeal to the Russian people. And Russia cannot get rid of the current suffocating financial sanctions […]

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UkraineAlert

Feb 10, 2016

Where is Ukraine’s Government Headed Now? Four Possible Scenarios

By Tim Ash

Ukraine’s ongoing political crisis offers observers an opportunity to analyze the current state of affairs and determine likely scenarios for the country’s political future in the near term. First, the recent resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius from the position of Minister of Economic Development and Trade did not appear to be coordinated with either the reform […]

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UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Ukraine’s Got a Real Army Now. But Is It Preparing to Fight the Last Battle?

By Ruben Gzirian

The prolonged stalemate of Minsk II has provided the Ukrainian military ample opportunity to address a series of longstanding challenges stretching back to the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych. While it is clear that the Ukrainian military has improved since its disastrous defeat at Debaltseve in February 2015, evaluating the real effect of ongoing reforms is […]

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UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Dutch Likely to Hand Putin a Major Symbolic Victory in Referendum on EU-Ukraine Association Agreement

By Andreas Umland

There is something odd about the upcoming Dutch plebiscite on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. On April 6, the Netherlands will hold a national referendum on a treaty between Brussels and Kyiv that was signed in 2014 and ratified in 2015. Yet, the European Union and the European Community have, during the last sixty years, concluded […]

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UkraineAlert

Feb 9, 2016

Actually, No. Russia and Ukraine Are Not Equally Delinquent When It Comes to Fulfilling Minsk

By Paul Niland

One of the most startling examples of the adage “there are two sides to every story” is the difference in perceptions over the implementation of the Minsk Agreements between Ukraine and Russia. Minsk, if handled in good faith, could be the roadmap to deescalate the war in Ukraine and bring peace to the region. In […]

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UkraineAlert

Feb 8, 2016

What’s Behind the Resignation of Minister Abromavicius?

By Basil A. Kalymon and Oleh Havrylyshyn

The resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius from the position of Minister of Economic Development and Trade is another nail in the coffin for the hopes for serious reform in Ukraine. In resigning, he follows in the footsteps of his predecessor Pavlo Sheremeta, who was also unwilling to serve in a government that was more interested in […]

Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Feb 5, 2016

Putin Corners Himself in Ukraine. We Would Be Crazy to Placate Him Now

By Diane Francis

The recent backroom bilateral talks between the United States and Russia about Ukraine have caused anxiety in the region, raised hopes that sanctions could be lifted, and elevated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s status to super power level. All are counterproductive. Since the bilateral talks and optimistic statements by US Secretary of State John Kerry about […]

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UkraineAlert

Feb 3, 2016

Why Do Ukraine’s Reform Ministers Keep Quitting?

By Anders Åslund

On February 3, Ukraine’s Minister of Economic Development and Trade Aivaras Abromavicius announced his resignation at a press briefing with a big bang that may unleash a political crisis and shake the country’s fragile finances. Abromavicius, a 40-year-old investment banker of Lithuanian origin who has lived in Kyiv for many years as a fund manager, […]

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