Commentary & Analysis

The United States needs a victory plan for the Indo-Pacific

By Brian Kerg

The United States remains focused on planning for a short, sharp war with China. But a potential conflict will almost certainly become a long war of attrition.

Defending Taiwan means mobilizing society, not just the military

By Marvin J. Park

Taiwan is under unprecedented pressure from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), facing coordinated threats on multiple fronts.

Win fast or lose big against China

By Bradley T. Gericke

MG Bradley Gericke, US Army (ret.), argues that the US must prepare to win quickly in a conflict with China to deter war and avoid the high costs of protraction.

To secure Taiwan, the United States must first secure Ukraine

By Brian Kerg

US defense priorities appear to be at a crossroads. Can the United States materially sustain Ukraine in its fight with Russia while preparing for a possible fight with China in defense of Taiwan?

Deterring Chinese aggression takes real-time intelligence

By Scott D. Berrier

LTG (R) Scott D. Berrier argues that transforming the Intelligence Communit’s early-warning system and attaining real-time awareness is crucial to deterring Chinese aggression.

Toplines: The United States and its allies must be ready to deter a two-front war and nuclear attacks in East Asia

By Markus Garlauskas

The “toplines” from Markus Garlauskus’ report on two emerging and interrelated deterrence challenges in East Asia with grave risks to US national security.

Nuclear weapons on the battlefield are a growing risk. US and allied militaries should prepare now.

By Brad T. Gericke and Donna Wilt

US military and defense thinkers must overcome two major misconceptions that for too long have shaped US actions regarding nuclear weapons.

The North Korea-Russia relationship is blossoming into a common market of autocracies

By John Park

Moscow and Pyongyang are devising and developing new business practices to supply each other while evading the reach of many US sanctions.

Dispatch from Taiwan: China’s military drills look more frightening outside of Taiwan than from inside

By Brian Kerg

The US and its allies took note when China launched large military exercises around Taiwan just after October 10. But it’s also important to pay attention to how Taiwanese reacted to Beijing’s saber-rattling.

North Korean troops are in Russia. Here’s why.

By Atlantic Council

The United States has confirmed that North Korean troops are in Russia to aid the Kremlin in its war on Ukraine. Atlantic Council experts share their insights.

In a war against China, the US could quickly exhaust its weapons. A new Indo-Pacific defense initiative might be the answer.

By Adam Kozloski

The new Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience could enable faster provisioning of resources to Taiwan, the Philippines, South Korea, or even the United States if a war breaks out. 

How the US and the Philippines should counter Beijing’s aggression in the South China Sea

By Elizabeth Freund Larus and James Rice

Washington, Manila, and their Indo-Pacific allies must work together to counter China’s maritime aggression in Philippine waters.

Dispatch from Manila: On the frontlines of the ‘gray zone’ conflict with China

By Markus Garlauskas

In the Philippines, China’s aggression is not in some shadowy, ill-defined “gray zone.” It’s a real and constant series of attacks on the country’s people and sovereignty.

What to expect from Japan-South Korea relations after Kishida

By Atlantic Council experts

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is meeting with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in Seoul September 6-7—likely their final summit before Kishida steps down. Atlantic Council experts share their insights on what’s next for Tokyo and Seoul.

Geopolitics looms large as Pacific Islands leaders prepare to gather in Tonga

By Parker Novak

Leaders from countries in the Pacific Islands will meet August 26-30, at a moment when the growing rivalry between the United States and China is reshaping the Indo-Pacific.

How quickly can Taiwan integrate US weapon systems? Speed is essential to help deter China.

By Adam Kozloski

To better prepare Taiwan to defend itself, the United States needs more transparency into Taipei’s weapons integration challenges.

Kishida has transformed Japanese foreign policy. Will his successor continue on his path?

By Kyoko Imai

It is uncertain whether the next Japanese prime minister will follow through on the Kishida administration’s major shifts in defense policy.

From the Pentagon to the Philippines, integrating deterrence in the Indo-Pacific

By Kevin M. Wheeler

The United States and its Indo-Pacific allies must work together across all levels and domains for their regional deterrence to be effective.

Dispatch from Taipei: Why Taiwan’s survival may depend on deterrence through resilience

By Markus Garlauskas

A repeated theme in recent discussions in Taipei was Taiwan’s ability to withstand Chinese coercion and to adapt and sustain its defenses while under attack.

Indirect China-Russia trade is bolstering Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine

By Joseph Webster

Trade between China and Russia has risen sharply since the beginning of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, facilitating the Kremlin’s war effort.

Think China can already take Taiwan easily? Think again.

By Brian Kerg

Beijing’s influence campaign in pursuit of a “cognitive fait accompli” against Taiwan is conducted across multiple lines of operation.

Experts react: What will Putin and Xi’s ‘new era’ of cooperation mean for the world?

By Atlantic Council experts

The Russian president and the Chinese leader just met in Beijing to celebrate their increasing cooperation to create a new global order.

What to expect from the Solomon Islands’ new prime minister on China, the West, and more

By Parker Novak

Jeremiah Manele has emerged as the next prime minister. What does his victory mean for the country’s pro-China “Look North” policy?

As Sogavare seeks reelection in the Solomon Islands, China’s influence is on the ballot

By Parker Novak

The April 17 elections in the Solomon Islands will determine whether the country doubles down on its ties with China or changes course.

Experts react: Biden pursues an ambitious global agenda with Japan and the Philippines. Can they deliver?

By Atlantic Council experts

The US president met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. this week in Washington.

This aspect of the Biden-Kishida summit will define the military response to an Indo-Pacific crisis

By Markus Garlauskas

The US and Japan must modernize their command and control structures to ensure deterrence and defeat threats in the Indo-Pacific.

The US and Japan are upgrading their security alliance. Here’s what needs to come next.

By Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi

The upgrades to the US-Japan Security Treaty are welcome, but their effectiveness will depend on how they are implemented in the coming years.

There will be no ‘short, sharp’ war. A fight between the US and China would likely go on for years.

By Brian Kerg

US policymakers and military leaders must rigorously study and plan for a broad range of implications from a years-long war against China.

To combat Chinese cyber threats, the US must spearhead a new Indo-Pacific intelligence coalition

By Victor Atkins

Such a coalition would help disrupt cyber threats, signal US resolve, and ideally help deter future cyberattacks from China.

Experts react: Prabowo Subianto has claimed victory in Indonesia. What’s in store for his presidency?

By Atlantic Council experts

The current Indonesian defense minister is poised to be his country’s next president, with projections showing him easily clearing 50 percent in the February 14 election.

Who will lead Indonesia after Jokowi? The world’s third-largest democracy is about to decide.

By Parker Novak

On February 14, Indonesians will choose among Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, and Anies Baswedan. And even more than the next president is being decided.

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2024

Atlantic Council foresight experts spot the underappreciated phenomena that could have outsize impact on the world, driving global change and shaping the future.

Experts react: Taiwan just elected Lai Ching-te as president despite China’s opposition. What’s next?

By Atlantic Council experts

Atlantic Council experts explain what a Lai presidency will mean for Taiwan’s foreign policy trajectory—and how China is likely to respond.

The sentencing of a US Navy sailor is a window into Chinese espionage. Here’s how the US should respond.

By Andrew Brown

China’s intelligence services recognize that national security information does not have to be classified to provide them with value.

A pivotal contest for strategic islands in the Pacific is upon us—and it’s not about Taiwan or the South China Sea

By Markus Garlauskas, Parker Novak

Time is running out for Congress to take concerted bipartisan action on agreements with Micronesia, Palau, and the Marshall Islands.

China’s acoustic aggression against a US ally follows a pattern. Military talks won’t help.

By Markus Garlauskas, Philip W. Yu

On November 14, a Chinese warship used its active sonar to harass and injure two Australian Royal Navy divers with high-powered sound waves.

Experts react: Are the US and South Korea following through on the Washington Declaration? 

By Atlantic Council experts

US and South Korean defense officials and military leaders just met in Seoul for two meetings that, while long-standing annual events, have taken on a new urgency following the April 2023 Washington Declaration.

Jokowi comes to Washington with a sensitive yet promising to-do list

By Parker Novak

The Indonesian president, an infrequent overseas traveler, is expected to meet with US President Joe Biden at the White House on November 13.

What the Putin-Kim authoritarian get-together means for Russia’s war and North Korea’s capabilities

By Atlantic Council experts

Experts react to Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia.

Dispatches from Taiwan: Expert perspectives from an Atlantic Council visit to Taipei

By Atlantic Council experts

A timely delegation delivers on-the-ground insights and analysis on the island democracy’s challenges and role in the Indo-Pacific.

Experts react: The US-Japan-South Korea summit was ‘historic.’ But what did it accomplish?

By Atlantic Council experts

President Joe Biden, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and President Yoon Suk Yeol set forward a common security agenda at Camp David. Atlantic Council experts share their insights on what’s next.

Showing up is half the battle, and the United States is doing so in the Pacific Islands

By Parker Novak

USAID Administrator Power’s visit to Papua New Guinea and Fiji highlights the importance of high-level diplomacy and soft power in the strategically located region.

As Blinken visits Tonga, the US needs to think beyond China in the Pacific Islands

By Parker Novak

Geopolitics is important, but Washington’s relations with the strategically located region need to be about more than competition with Beijing.

Experts react: South Korea embarks on a new nuclear era. How will it play out?

By Atlantic Council experts

US and South Korean officials just met in Seoul for the inaugural meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group, a new bilateral platform to coordinate deterrence against a North Korean nuclear attack.

Reading between the lines of the new North Korea intelligence estimate

By Markus Garlauskas

The US intelligence community has just released its National Intelligence Estimate on North Korea, a watershed analysis. But more is worth adding to the discussion.

Experts react: Blinken makes the rounds in Beijing. Will there be a US-China thaw?

By Atlantic Council experts

The US secretary of state has just wrapped up meetings with top Chinese officials in Beijing. Read insights from Atlantic Council experts on what was revealed and what to look for next.

What’s really behind plans for a NATO office in Japan

By Sara Bjerg Moller

What’s really behind Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s recent announcement that his government is exploring opening a NATO-liaison office in Tokyo?

Don’t call it a Quint, but South Korea does have a future with the Quad 

By Thomas Cynkin

There is space for South Korea to participate in aspects of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and other minilateral structures aimed at maintaining international order and security in the Pacific.

Experts react: A ‘game changer’ G7 summit in Japan

By Atlantic Council experts

As leaders of the Group of Seven countries gather in Hiroshima, Atlantic Council experts share their insights on what is coming out of the summit about Russia, China, the global economy, and more.

The day the US-South Korea alliance became truly nuclear-armed

By Atlantic Council

What does the Washington Declaration mean for the alliance, and how will it play in Seoul? Will the pact hold together in the long run? Our experts weigh in.

Not every North Korean missile needs a response. South Korea and the US should focus more on readiness and deterrence.

By Jessica Taylor

The nuclear collaboration announced by the US and South Korean presidents this week is the type of strategic measure the allies need to focus on, rather than a reactive approach.

Experts react: The US and South Korea strike a deal on nuclear weapons. What’s next for the alliance?

By Atlantic Council experts

US President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol are navigating political tensions around nuclear weapons and microchips to find a common future.

Don’t let Beijing define the narrative of Taiwan’s relations with the world

By Markus Garlauskas

As Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen stops in the United States, Beijing is trying to paint reasonable, routine, and restrained actions as risky, worrisome, and escalatory.

Experts react: Your guide to the Taiwanese president’s trip to the US and Central America

By Atlantic Council experts

President Tsai Ing-wen’s trip comes as US tensions with China are nearing a boiling point, and Taiwan is hustling to hang on to its allies in Latin America.

Are South Korea-Japan relations finally getting back on track?

By Thomas Cynkin

The more that Japan shows its relationship with Korea is a two-way street, the more sustainable it will be in the face of Korean public opinion.

Tweets of the Union: Live expert analysis of Biden’s big address

By Atlantic Council experts

Find the best Twitter analysis by Atlantic Council experts of President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address as he takes on Russia, China, and more.

NATO is entering a new phase in the Indo-Pacific

By Sara Bjerg Moller

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s visit to Japan and South Korea trip was striking both for its timing and for its messaging shift on China.