Transatlantic Security Initiative

Expect NATO leadership to focus on three main issues: defense spending, defense industrial production, and aid to Ukraine.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation again raises questions about whether the current difficulty lies in the candidate, the country, or the system.

The Alliance can use the upcoming summit in Turkey to advance four policies that will help it increase its security along its south.

The Alliance was not designed to focus only on its easter flank. Vulnerabilities to NATO’s south are accumulating faster than strategy is adapting.

NATO can gather allies to share best practices and also coordinate responses, even if the Alliance does not respond to subthreshold attacks itself.

The announcement on sending US troops to Poland didn’t stop Washington’s other force posture decisions from generating concern among NATO allies.

Iran’s use of a maritime chokepoint as a geopolitical tool—implemented in response to a war that violates the United Nations Charter—and the United States’ inconsistent response dramatically undermine the global maritime order and open the door for further such closures.

Geopolitical tensions are reshaping innovation ecosystems, with dual-use technologies increasingly linking economic competitiveness and security. In Finland, NATO membership has accelerated this shift, creating new opportunities for innovators to engage with NATO DIANA and contribute to allied defense innovation.

European NATO member states need to prepare to deter, and if necessary, defeat Russia—with less US support. When it comes to airpower, here are the actions European states need to take in the short, medium, and long term. 

The shadow fleet—ships sailing outside the official shipping system — has grown to encompass more than a thousand oil tankers globally. Iranian shadow vessels slipping through the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are the latest sign that the fleet and its main sponsor, Russia, have responded to enforcement attempts with ever more brazen violations.

NATO’s competitive edge in the era of emerging and disruptive technologies will come from treating AI as a general-purpose enabler embedded across the Alliance’s digital backbone. Military AI does not generate new risks but creates more room for human error and miscalculation. Accidents and inadvertent escalation thus become more likely as military systems bring in more AI components.

Whether emboldened by victory in Ukraine or motivated by a loss to pursue success elsewhere, Russian president Vladimir Putin is likely to continue his campaign of aggression. The Nordic and Baltic region, already subject to a campaign of intimidation, is in the Kremlin’s crosshairs—with these five places at greatest risk.