Global Strategy Initiative

The COVID-19 pandemic is an acute public health and economic crisis that is further destabilizing an already weakened rules-based international system. With cooperation, determination, and resolve, however, the United States and its allies can recover from the crisis and revitalize an adapted rules-based system to bring about decades of future freedom, peace, and prosperity.

A preliminary look at the geopolitical implications of the pandemic and possible directions for the global system after the still-unfolding crisis.

The COVID-19 pandemic has stressed pressure points in the global order and threatens to unravel the rules-based international system. This paper examines the geopolitical implications of the pandemic by identifying key strategic shocks and tensions exacerbated by the virus. It also identifies uncertainties for the global order and provides policy recommendations for how the United States and its allies should address the pandemic.

We need a new strategy—one that is both ambitious and innovative, geared towards meeting the challenges and opportunities that the new decade brings.

Our conclusion in 2016’s Global Risks 2035 was that state-on-state conflict posed a bigger threat than terrorism. In the two years since, the post-Cold War order has continued to unravel without a “new normal” emerging.

China is engaged in a systematic campaign of repression against predominantly Muslim ethnic minorities in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) in northwest China, and its actions call for a coordinated response on the part of the United States and its allies.

The United States and its allies must take further actions to push back on Beijing’s crackdown in Hong Kong.

With the rules-based democratic order under threat, leading democracies need to develop common strategic approaches that pool their collective influence to confront today’s challenges.

With 900 million people and $1 trillion in defense spending, the United States and Europe represent by far the largest, oldest, and most capable economic and security community in the world.

The increasing assertiveness of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) poses a significant challenge to the interests and values of likeminded allies and partners and a rules-based internationa system.

Over the past decade, the Kremlin has executed a concerted strategy to undermine the cohesion of, and confidence in, democratically-elected governments in Europe and around the world. In response, leading democracies have acted to counter Russia by enacting sanctions and pursuing other measures aimed at defending frontline states against Russian aggression.

The implementation of the national security law has stifled the democratic movement in Hong Kong. This action sparked a series of democratic protests that China quickly attempted to dismantle—alarming observers worldwide. Can democracies mitigate the impact of the new national security laws on Hong Kong? Should Chine face penalties from the international community? Or will aligned democracies fail to defend other vulnerable democratic nations against Chinese malign influence?

The outcome of the US presidential election in November will reverberate throughout the world. It will have a direct impact on US allies and partners, as well as structural implications for the global system. Will the United States continue to play its post-World War II international leadership role? Or will Washington continue its steady retreat from international commitments?

Americans have been the unconscious beneficiaries of a world order that would not exist without them. Just as we take for granted electricity and plumbing, so to we take for granted the peace and prosperity of our system.

Over the past two years, the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security has hosted a series of strategy consortium meetings with small groups of experts and officials to discuss a comprehensive US and allied strategy for China. This paper provides a brief preview of an Atlantic Council Strategy Paper to be released this fall. Strategic […]

On May 13, 2020, the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security hosted a strategy consortium with a small group of experts and officials to discuss the evolution of the Russia-China relationship and how the United States and its allies should navigate it. This paper summarizes many of the points made during this meeting. Background: The […]